GOLD PRICE WEEKLY TECHNICAL FORECAST: NEUTRAL
- Gold gravitated 1% lower and silver slid 3% last week as the shiny commodities give back gains
- Precious metals seem broadly supported by upward pressures despite recent headwinds
- Gold price action could continue oscillating in the absence of a needed bullish catalyst
Gold prices remain turbulent with bulls and bears battling over the direction of precious metals. The last five trading sessions steered the price of gold and silver lower on balance by 1% and 3% respectively. This marks the first weekly decline for gold and silver since the shiny commodities based mid-September. That said, gold price volatility is to be expected amid big swings in the USD and real yields recently.
GOLD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (15 MAY TO 16 OCT 2020)
Chart by @RichDvorakFX created using TradingView
A relief bounce off the $1,865-price level and 100-day simple moving average sent gold recoiling back higher, but the rebound was undermined by prior support-turned-resistance. The intensifying Bollinger Band squeeze highlights gold prices consolidating sideways between these critical technical barriers. Also, this is likely a result of gold coiling within the confines of its medium-term bearish and short-term bullish trendlines.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 4% | -13% | -5% |
| Weekly | -23% | 12% | -8% |
To be clear, headwinds lingering over gold and silver for the last two months might keep pushing the precious metals lower, but outlook still appears constructive more broadly. Gold price action could be at risk of a breakdown toward the $1,800-handle if bears make a push below $1,865/oz. This scenario grows more likely in the trying absence of a needed bullish catalyst. On the other hand, the precious metal has potential to resume its parabolic rally with a move back above $1,930/oz as this might open up the door to the psychologically significant $2,000-price level and beyond.
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-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com
Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight
