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Australian Dollar Forecast: Aussie Rebound May Be Short Lived

Australian Dollar Forecast: Aussie Rebound May Be Short Lived

2020-10-04 07:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update - Weekly Chart
  • AUD/USD rebounds off key technical pivot zone
  • Aussie at risk for further losses sub-7329- Key support 7016

The Australian Dollar is up nearly 2% against the US Dollar this week with AUD/USD rebounding off a critical inflection zone in price. While a breakout of the yearly opening-range does keep the broader focus weighted to the topside, Aussie remains at risk for a deeper correction heading into October after turning from multi-year slope resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly price chart. for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie trade setup and more.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

AUDUSD Chart

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes:In my last Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that Aussie was, “testing multi-year trend resistance here and the focus is on the weekly close with respect to this slope. . . be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion into this region.” Price rallied into the 2018 parallel (red) to register a high at 7413 before reversing sharply with a decline of more than 5.5% rebounding this week off key support at the 2020/2019 objective yearly opens at 7016/42.

The immediate focus is on possible topside exhaustion on this recovery ahead of the 7295-7328resistance zone IF price is indeed heading lower. A break below this key support zone would expose the 2016 low at 6827 backed by a more significant technical confluence at 6660/85- both zones of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached. Ultimately a topside breach / close above 7328 is needed to mark resumption of the March rally with such a scenario exposing subsequent objectives at the 38.2% retracement of the 2011 decline at 7635.

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Bottom line: The Australian Dollar has rebounded off a key inflection zone and the immediate focus is on possible topside exhaustion on this stretch early in the month. From at trading standpoint, the risk remains tilted to the downside while below 7295 with a break / close below 7016 needed to suggest a deeper Aussie correction is underway. Review my latest Australian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

AUDUSD Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.39 (41.92% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 17.59% lower than yesterday and 20.03% lower from last week
  • Short positions are7.89% higher than yesterday and 24.10% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
AUD/USD MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -18% 8% -7%
Weekly 4% -17% -8%
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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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