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GBP Weekly Forecast: Key GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Levels to Watch, Brexit Deal or No-Deal?

GBP Weekly Forecast: Key GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Levels to Watch, Brexit Deal or No-Deal?

Justin McQueen, Analyst

GBP/USD, EUR/GBPTECHNICAL HIGHLIGHTS:

  • GBP Eyes Return to 1.32-1.33 on Possible Brexit Deal
  • EUR/GBP in Choppy Conditions But Risks Point Lower
  • Differences Remain in Trade Talks But Deal Likelihood is Improving

Once again, another volatile week for GBP/USD albeit closing on a high note. While differences remain in current negotiations over key areas (level playing field & fisheries), there are signs that a deal is becoming increasingly likely with markets awaiting the outcome of talks between UK’s Johnson and EU’s Von Der Leyen. On initial thoughts reports of the meeting taking place is somewhat reminiscent of last year’s high level political intervention between Johnson and Varadkar to reach a deal on the Withdrawal Agreement.

Get the Global Risk Event Calendar for October

GBP Eyes Return to 1.32-1.33 on Brexit Deal

On the topside, near term resistance is situated at 1.3000 with 1.3034 ahead. Signs of a breakthrough however, leaves the door open to a sharp move towards 1.3200-1.3300. Meanwhile, dips have found support at 1.2815-25. According to option pricing, implied weekly move for GBP/USD is (+/- )1.3%

GBP/USD Daily Time Frame

GBPUSD Price Chart

Source: Refinitiv

EUR/GBP in Choppy Conditions But Risks Point Lower

Choppy trading in EUR/GBP, however, despite finding support at 0.9025, the cross continues to head lower as the mood music regarding Brexit grows ever more positive. With near-term support situated at 0.9026 (100DMA), a break below would provide confirmation that the September high at 0.9300 was the peak, signalling that losses can extend towards 0.8950, with 0.8860 ahead. Moves higher have stalled at 0.9155, which looks set to remain firm in the short-run.

EUR/GBP Daily Time Frame

EURGBP Daily Time Chart

Source: Refinitiv

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