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Crude Oil Forecast for Next Week: Inaction to Turn into Action?

Crude Oil Forecast for Next Week: Inaction to Turn into Action?

2020-08-22 01:00:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist

Crude Oil Technical Highlights:

  • WTI crude oil unable to climb above confluent resistance
  • Continue to monitor risk trends for cues

WTI crude oil unable to climb above confluent resistance

Crude oil movement has been very minimal in recent weeks, and until it can get some separation from big resistance this may continue to be the case. Resistance comes by way of the 2017 and 2018 lows and 200-day, just after filling the Saudi-induced gap back in March. A bit spot here.

Price action since the gap-fill in early June is taking on the shape of a wedge, and given the proximity of price to the apex we appear to be on the cusp of a move. Break into the 44s and WTI may pick up some steam, perhaps towards 50/51, several swing-lows from 2019. Break down out of the wedge and we could see oil quickly drop towards the 35 level, the bottom of the wedge.

Keep an eye on risk-trends, namely stocks, as oil is a big part of the “recovery” theme. Higher stocks may not drag oil along for the ride, though, as much as a stock market decline would undermine oil prices. This seems to have become apparent recently with stocks rising over the past two months while oil sputters at resistance.

This next week may bring more of the same choppy price action, but again, with price so close to the apex of a wedge pattern it could break at any time so be prepared for inaction to turn into action…

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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