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Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Breakout Gives- Exhaustion Ahead?

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Breakout Gives- Exhaustion Ahead?

2020-07-24 19:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update - Weekly Chart
  • AUD/USD breakout testing multi-year Fibonacci resistance at 7131
  • Aussie constructive while above 6807- Resistance at 7328

The Australian Dollar rallied more than 1.3% against the US Dollar this week with a breakout in AUD/USD fueling a fifth consecutive weekly rally to fresh yearly highs. The advance stalled this just above long-term Fibonacci resistance before pulling back with the broader Aussie outlook constructive while within this multi-month channel formation. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly price chart. for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie trade setup and more.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

AUDUSD Price Chart

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes:In my last Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that Aussie was, “poised to close its third consecutive weekly advance, the rally remains vulnerable while below the 2020/2019 yearly open resistance at 7016/42.” A breach above this threshold early in the week fueled a breakout in AUD/USD with the rally faltering just above long-term Fibonacci resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the 2018 decline at 7131- the immediate advance may be vulnerable while below this threshold.

Initial support now back at 7016/42 with bullish invalidation now raised to the late-April trendline / 6807. A break below the 2008 low-week close / 2019 low at 6660/70 would ultimately be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. A topside breach from here keeps the focus on the 2019 high / May 2017 swing low / upper parallel at 7295-7329 – an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion. Look for a larger reaction there for guidance IF reached.

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Bottom line: A breakout in the Australian Dollar has already taken out initial resistance objectives at key Fibonacci resistance – a close above 7131 is needed to keep the long-bias viable towards 7329. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Look for downside exhaustion ahead of 7016 IF price is indeed heading higher on this stretch. Review my latest Australian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

AUDUSD Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.91 (34.35% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are 9.57% lower than yesterday and 7.41% lower from last week
  • Short positions are7.38% lower than yesterday and 9.14% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/USD prices may rise. Traders are more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUD/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 14% -14% -2%
Weekly 11% -14% -3%
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.