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Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Range in Need of Breaking

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Range in Need of Breaking

2020-07-17 16:00:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
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USD/CAD Highlights:

  • USD/CAD rangebound, for now
  • Top and bottom-side levels to watch for a breakout

USD/CAD rangebound, for now

The Canadian dollar has been a relative snooze-fest lately with it heading nowhere fast, but like all ranges it won’t last forever and will eventually lead to a breakout. The confinement in USD/CAD could soon further the trend lower off the March high or try to reverse course to the top-side.

There is solid support at this time in the immediate area surrounding 13500 with several small lows in recent weeks developing around the 200-day MA. This is making for a floor, that if broken, should lead to some decent momentum toward the June low around 13300, perhaps beyond should sellers show up in earnest.

On the flip-side, if support can continue to hold and the upper parallel off the March high (currently testing it) then a rally may form. But to confirm the break higher, a crossing of the top of the month-long range will be needed by breaching 13715.

This would likely lead to an important test of 13850, several lows created during April/May, before possibly turning lower again, or reasserting itself further towards 14000 should that threshold be crossed.

All-in-all, USD/CAD will be stuck in a range until its not, so traders need to be careful not to churn themselves if looking for a directional move. If anticipating an extended range, then looking to fade the perimeters of the range may prove a prudent strategy until we see a breakout.

USD Forecast
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX

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