News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @KyleR_IG: The Aussie 10Y yield: surely this thing has to break lower at some point, especially with bullish sentiment cooling off in gl…
  • Bitcoin struggled to maintain a push into record highs and appears to be vulnerable to a near-term pullback. Litecoin and Ethereum saw more aggressive gains, will their momentum accelerate? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/f5d7qs5j3z https://t.co/dhLJjkQEnx
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.12% Silver: 0.05% Oil - US Crude: -1.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/fb0rTb7U02
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: AUD/USD Mixed as Retail Sales Surpass Expectations $AUD $USD Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/21/AUDUSD-Mixed-as-Retail-Sales-Surpass-Expectations.html
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.05% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.01% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.00% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/KHYBRYg6wf
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.46%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 66.19%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/VNFQudLmfc
  • #USDZAR looking incredibly interesting after breaching the neckline of a Double Top pattern A short-term bounce could be at hand but if 14.50 remains intact, a more extended push lower seems likely in the coming weeks $USDZAR https://t.co/1rHgmX4zyB
  • RT @KyleR_IG: "Retail sales rose 1.4 per cent in March" https://t.co/aM9vXo5s49 #ausbiz
  • 🇦🇺 Retail Sales MoM Prel (MAR) Actual: 1.4% Expected: 1% Previous: -0.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-21
  • 🇦🇺 Westpac Leading Index MoM (MAR) Actual: 0.38% Previous: 0.16% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-21
US Dollar Technical Outlook: 'Death Cross' Takes Shape in July

US Dollar Technical Outlook: 'Death Cross' Takes Shape in July

David Song, Strategist

US Dollar Talking Points

The technical outlook warns of a further depreciation in the US Dollar as a ‘death cross’ formation takes shape in July, but the DXY index may face range bound conditions over the coming days amid the failed attempt to test the June low (95.75).

Technical Forecast for US Dollar: Neutral

The US Dollar has given back the advance following the COVID-19 outbreak, with DXY now marginally higher from the start of the year as the Federal Reserve deploys a slew of unconventional tools to combat the economic shock from the pandemic.

In turn, DXY appears to have established a downward trend from the March high (102.99), with the trendline tracking a similar slope to the 50-Day SMA (98.06).

DXY Index Daily Chart

DXY Index Chart

Source: Trading View

The negative slopes in the simple moving averages offer a bearish outlook for the US Dollar index as the 50-Day SMA (98.06) crosses below the 200-Day SMA (98.27) in July, and the ‘death cross’ formation undermines the recent rebound in DXY as the recovery from the June low (95.72) stalls ahead of the June high (98.32).

As result, DXY may continue to track last month’s range as the decline from the start of July fails trigger an extreme reading in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) like the behavior seen in June.

With that said, DXY may continue to hold above the Fibonacci overlap around 95.90 (23.6% expansion) to 96.00 (50% retracement) amid the a failed attempt to test the June low (95.75), with lack of momentum to close below the 96.40 (78.6% retracement) region bringing the 97.10 (38.2% expansion) area on the radar.

Need a break/close above 97.10 to open up the overlap around 97.60 (23.6% expansion) to 98.20 (50% expansion), which largely lines up with trendline resistance.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES