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Oil Price Forecast: WTI Jumps Back Above 40, but Can it Maintain?

Oil Price Forecast: WTI Jumps Back Above 40, but Can it Maintain?

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis

  • WTI crude oil prices put in a strong jump on Friday to erase earlier-week losses but, on net, this week’s price action in WTI closed as a doji.
  • A few weeks ago saw the build of an inverse head-and-shoulders with the neckline defined at the 40-handle: That led to a topside breakout as WTI filled the gap left over from the March sell-off. But, since then, its been largely back-and-forth price action.
  • Another pattern has built in WTI crude oil price action as a rising wedge has formed with that 40-level again playing a key role, looked at in greater detail below.

WTI Crude Oil Continues to Battle at $40, Can Bulls Take Control?

Starting off with the longer-term, it was a fairly quiet week in oil, oddly enough. The weekly chart is currently showing a small doji around that same $40 handle that came into play a few weeks ago. I had written about the setup then, as a short-term inverse head and shoulders pattern had built in, basing off of that 40-level for the neckline, and that soon opened the door to a quick breakout that filled the gap left from the March sell-off. But – after that gap was filled, buyers took the side exit and price action pushed back-below the 40 level. And, here we are, three weeks later, and price action is still entangled with that 40-handle.

On the below weekly chart, notice this week’s doji followed the resistance interaction, around that gap-fill area from late-June. Since that gap has been filled, oil prices haven’t really shown much trend, at least yet.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Price Chart (Next Contract Month)

WTI Crude Oil weekly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; CL2 on Tradingview

Oil Recovers with Late-Week Rally, Remains in Rising Wedge

This week there’s another formation of interest at-play, and that’s a rising wedge pattern that, again, is building with an assist of resistance from that 40-handle.

The primary difference from this rising wedge and the inverse head and shoulders looked at previously is one of directional expectation: The inverse head and shoulders will often be approached in a bullish manner, looking for the horizontal resistance to finally give way to bullish potential, as highlighted by the higher-lows constituting the right side of the shoulder (from the head).

The rising wedge, however, will often be approached from a bearish vantage point, looking for the same lack of enthusiasm that bulls have shown around tests of highs or at resistance to, eventually, take-over to allow for a push through support. We discuss the rising wedge along with numerous other formations in the chart patterns portion of the DailyFX Education section; and for next week, this can keep the door open for bearish themes in oil prices.

WTI Crude Oil Eight-Hour Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil 8-hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; CL2 on Tradingview

Technical Forecast for WTI Crude Oil: Bearish

The forecast for next week will be set to bearish for WTI Crude oil, largely due to the build of the rising wedge as the 40-level and the 41.34 Fibonacci level have continued to exhibit resistance.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; CL2 on Tradingview

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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