0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • S&P 500 price is within striking distance of hitting all-time highs as stocks continue to rally. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/pKvJ9wv9VY https://t.co/kkbBSDDVo8
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.94%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 78.38%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Ycy6nhUEDm
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.09% US 500: -0.02% Wall Street: -0.07% France 40: -0.14% FTSE 100: -0.32% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/6KHC1wW7Wo
  • Ugly numbers but (always a but with data), June monthly GDP +8.7% gives hope.... https://t.co/CYevGpL7g5
  • Fed's Daly: #Fed committed to making inflation goal of 2% - BBG
  • With the S&P 500 just topping its all-time record high and the 10YR Treasury yield up again now to 67-bps, yesterday's selloff in stocks looks more like it had to do with margin calls related to the sharp reversal in precious metals.
  • I know it came out a while back but wow, prelim UK GDP data for Q2 QoQ was -20.4%, and YoY was -21.7%.
  • New Zealand Dollar weakness has erupted after a dovish RBNZ rate decision. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/4FzlO7o6NV https://t.co/zV2Ih55baV
  • Fed's Daly: Evidence that fiscal stimulus is providing help to economy - BBG
  • er, that didn't take long... S&P 500 just topped its all-time high
Oil Price Forecast: WTI Jumps Back Above 40, but Can it Maintain?

Oil Price Forecast: WTI Jumps Back Above 40, but Can it Maintain?

2020-07-11 01:00:00
James Stanley, Strategist
Share:

WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis

  • WTI crude oil prices put in a strong jump on Friday to erase earlier-week losses but, on net, this week’s price action in WTI closed as a doji.
  • A few weeks ago saw the build of an inverse head-and-shoulders with the neckline defined at the 40-handle: That led to a topside breakout as WTI filled the gap left over from the March sell-off. But, since then, its been largely back-and-forth price action.
  • Another pattern has built in WTI crude oil price action as a rising wedge has formed with that 40-level again playing a key role, looked at in greater detail below.

WTI Crude Oil Continues to Battle at $40, Can Bulls Take Control?

Starting off with the longer-term, it was a fairly quiet week in oil, oddly enough. The weekly chart is currently showing a small doji around that same $40 handle that came into play a few weeks ago. I had written about the setup then, as a short-term inverse head and shoulders pattern had built in, basing off of that 40-level for the neckline, and that soon opened the door to a quick breakout that filled the gap left from the March sell-off. But – after that gap was filled, buyers took the side exit and price action pushed back-below the 40 level. And, here we are, three weeks later, and price action is still entangled with that 40-handle.

Starts in:
Live now:
Aug 18
( 17:08 GMT )
James Stanley's Tuesday Webinar
Trading Price Action
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

On the below weekly chart, notice this week’s doji followed the resistance interaction, around that gap-fill area from late-June. Since that gap has been filled, oil prices haven’t really shown much trend, at least yet.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Price Chart (Next Contract Month)

WTI Crude Oil weekly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; CL2 on Tradingview

Oil Recovers with Late-Week Rally, Remains in Rising Wedge

This week there’s another formation of interest at-play, and that’s a rising wedge pattern that, again, is building with an assist of resistance from that 40-handle.

The primary difference from this rising wedge and the inverse head and shoulders looked at previously is one of directional expectation: The inverse head and shoulders will often be approached in a bullish manner, looking for the horizontal resistance to finally give way to bullish potential, as highlighted by the higher-lows constituting the right side of the shoulder (from the head).

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading
Recommended by James Stanley
Building Confidence in Trading
Get My Guide

The rising wedge, however, will often be approached from a bearish vantage point, looking for the same lack of enthusiasm that bulls have shown around tests of highs or at resistance to, eventually, take-over to allow for a push through support. We discuss the rising wedge along with numerous other formations in the chart patterns portion of the DailyFX Education section; and for next week, this can keep the door open for bearish themes in oil prices.

WTI Crude Oil Eight-Hour Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil 8-hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; CL2 on Tradingview

Technical Forecast for WTI Crude Oil: Bearish

The forecast for next week will be set to bearish for WTI Crude oil, largely due to the build of the rising wedge as the 40-level and the 41.34 Fibonacci level have continued to exhibit resistance.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; CL2 on Tradingview

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.