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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout Stalls at Uptrend Resistance

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout Stalls at Uptrend Resistance

2020-06-26 16:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices rallied nearly 0.8% this week with XAU/USD pressing fresh multi-year highs. Despite the recent price breakout, gold continues to hold just below uptrend resistance and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable while below this slope. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this XAU/USD trade setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold price chart

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that, “the immediate focus is on a break of the 1673-1733 range for guidance with the long-bias at risk while below the upper parallel.” A close just above this threshold last week saw XAU/USD break to fresh yearly highs on Wednesday before pulling back with the upper parallel continuing to cap this advance.

Look for initial weekly support back at the 78.6% retracement at 1733 with bullish invalidation steady at the highlighted confluence zone around the March high-close at 1673. A close above 1765 is needed to keep the immediate long-bias viable heading into next week with such a scenario exposing subsequent topside resistance objectives at the 2012 high at 1795 and the record high-week close at 1856.

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Bottom line: The broader gold price rally remains vulnerable while below multi-year upslope resistance. A good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – look for an exhaustion low ahead of monthly open support at 1731 IF Price is indeed heading higher. Ultimately, a larger decline may offer more favorable entries closer to uptrend support. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold trader sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.11 (69.80% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are4.61% higher than yesterday and 11.93% higher from last week
  • Short positions are0.20% higher than yesterday and 17.93% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Gold BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 3% -10% 1%
Weekly 13% 1% 11%
Learn how shifts in Gold retail positioning impact trend
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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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