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Sterling Price Outlook: Pound Surges into Critical Fibonacci Resistance

Sterling Price Outlook: Pound Surges into Critical Fibonacci Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Sterling Technical Price Outlook: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Sterling technical trade level update – Weekly Chart
  • GBP/USD rally holding below confluent resistance at 1.2717/54
  • Broader Cable outlook remains constructive while above 1.2328

The British Pound rallied more than 2.6% against the US Dollar this week with the advance now taking Sterling more than 11% off the March lows. Price is testing the first major resistance hurdle here at a key technical confluence and while the medium-term risk remains weighted to the topside, the advance may be vulnerable while below this threshold. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Cable trade setup and more.

Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD Weekly

Sterling Price Chart

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on Tradingview

Notes:In my last Sterling Weekly Price Outlook we noted to keep a lookout for possible, “downside exhaustion while above 1.1950,” with a topside breach exposing, “subsequent resistance objectives at the 2018 low-week close at 1.2582 and a key technical confluence at 1.2717/54- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement and the 2019 yearly open.” Price registered a high at 1.2732 this week and leaves the long-bias vulnerable while below this threshold near-term.

Initial support rests back at 1.2582 with near-term bullish invalidation now raised to this week’s low at 1.2328 - a close below the March trendline would threaten a larger correction in Sterling. A breach higher from here exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 61.8% extension of the late-March advance at 1.2840 backed by the 75% parallel (currently ~1.2890s) and the yearly high-week close at 1.3078.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom Line: The Sterling rally is testing the first major resistance barrier early in the month and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable while below 1.27545 near-term. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce long-exposure / riase protective stops – look for downside exhaustion ahead of 1.2328 IF price is head higher with a breach / close above 1.2840 needed to mark resumption. I’ll publish and updated Sterling Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

Sterling Trader Sentiment - GBP/USD Price Chart

Sterling Price chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long GBP/USD - the ratio stands at -1.46 (40.65% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are7.90% lower than yesterday and 31.45% lower from last week
  • Short positions are12.56% lower than yesterday and 26.08% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet, traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBP/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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