OIL PRICE OUTLOOK: BEARISH
- Crude oil prices stalling at a critical juncture as upside momentum slows
- Stubborn resistance may cause uptrend to break, selling pressure to swell
- Monthly chart shows worrying outlook amid deteriorating fundamentals
Crude Oil Price Chart
Since bottoming out at a multi-year low at 16.01, crude oil prices have rallied and risen over 120 percent. However, recent price action suggests the cycle-sensitive commodity’s ascent may experience a pullback as it trades in a critical cross-section. The price parameters involve the mid-April uptrend and stubborn, familiar resistance at 36.45.
Crude Oil Prices – Daily Chart
Crude oil price chart created using TradingView
If the ceiling holds, the slope of appreciation that carried crude oil prices to their current levels will likely then be invalidated. A short-term pullback may then ensue, though selling pressure could start abating at a narrow support range between 28.70 and 29.10. However, if that floor cracks under the weight of sellers, it could open the door to retesting the multi-year swing-low at 16.01.
On the other hand, if crude oil prices bounce back from the 28.70-29.10 support zone, it could open the door to retesting the ceiling under which it had just capitulated. If upside momentum prevails and resistance is broken there, the next major obstacle to overcome will likely be the pre-OPEC meeting plunge at 45.51. Learn more about how geopolitical shocks impact markets here.
There is also the possibility that a congestive area may form between 36.45 and 29.10. Directionless trading in that range could signal an underlying indecision in the commodity’s short-term outlook. However, looking at a monthly chart shows a long and arduous road ahead for crude oil bulls.
Crude Oil Prices – Monthly Chart
Crude oil price chart created using TradingView
The wider timeframe shows crude oil prices have just recently recovered from retesting multi-decade lows following a market-wide, panic-induced selloff in growth-oriented assets. Even if the commodity is able to stage a recovery and surpass its pre-OPEC selloff high, a return to prices above $60 a barrel in the current fundamental environment appears unlikely in the medium-term outlook.
--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitri on Twitter
