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Japanese Yen Price Outlook: USD/JPY Rebound Faces First Test

Japanese Yen Price Outlook: USD/JPY Rebound Faces First Test

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Japanese Yen Technical Price Outlook: DXY Weekly Trade Levels

  • Japanese Yen technical trade levels update – Weekly Chart
  • USD/JPY rebound approaching initial resistance objectives
  • Rally may be vulnerable into the open of June trade

The Japanese Yen is poised to mark the third consecutive weekly loss against the US Dollar with USD/JPY poised to close up 0.16% on Friday. The rally takes price nearly 2% off the early-May lows with the advance now testing initial resistance objectives heading into the June open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY weekly price chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen trade setup and more.

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Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Japanese Yen

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on Tradingview

Notes:In last month’s Japanese Yen Weekly Price Outlook we noted to, “look for topside exhaustion while below the yearly open IF price is indeed heading lower with a break below 105.20 needed to fuel the next leg of the broader downtrend.” It’s been nearly five weeks and the same levels remain in view as momentum flatlines jus below 50. Initial resistance now stands at the March high-week reversal close at 107.91 backed by the yearly open at 108.62. Critical resistance steady at the 61.8% retracement of the late-March decline / 2019 open at 109.53/68 – look for a larger reaction there for guidance. Initial support rests with the 50% retracement at 106.45 with a break/ close below 105.20 still needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend.

JPY Forecast
JPY Forecast
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For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line:USD/JPY is trading into lateral heading into the close of the month. From a trading standpoint, look for downside exhaustion ahead of 106.45 IF price is indeed heading higher with a topside breach needed to keep the focus on 108.60. Review my latest Japanese Yen Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment – USD/JPY Price Chart

USDJPY Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/JPY - the ratio stands at +1.08 (52.01% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are3.00% lower than yesterday and 3.24% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 5.29% lower than yesterday and 4.99% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/JPY trading bias.
USD/JPY BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -9% 2% -3%
Weekly -16% 43% 11%
Learn how shifts in USD/JPY retail positioning impact trend
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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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