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Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Rally Runs Into Resistance as Risk-On Appetite Stalls

Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Rally Runs Into Resistance as Risk-On Appetite Stalls

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Crude Oil Price, Chart and Outlook.

  • Recent rally stalls on increased political tensions.
  • A bullish series of higher lows and highs are now broken.
Oil - US Crude MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 3% -2% 0%
Weekly -2% 4% 1%
What does it mean for price action?
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US-China Tensions Weigh on US Crude Oil

US-China headlines are starting to press down on the price of oil ahead of a long weekend where turnover will likely be low. This week the US Senate passed legislation that could see Chinese companies banned from listing on US exchanges, which is likely to provoke a strong response from Beijing, while President Trump continues to blame China for not containing, and being more transparent about, the COVID-19 virus. In addition, China is looking to further impose its will on Hong Kong by unilaterally passing a new set of security laws forbidding secession, foreign interference and sedition. An escalation in tension between the US and China will hurt any nascent global rebound.

The technical set-up for oil remains positive but the recent flare-up in political tensions will likely see oil consolidate in the near-future. The recent rally of the sell-off spike low found little in the way of resistance since the $7.55/bbl. print on April 21, with higher lows and higher highs seen on the chart. Today’s sell-off has halted that pattern and oil will need to take stock if it is to press higher. The 20-dma has moved through the 50-dma, highlighting the recent positive sentiment. If oil pushed higher, it will shortly encounter a gap on the daily chart between $36.59/bbl. and $41.19.4/bbl, an area that has not been traded in for over three years. This vacuum may prompt volatile price action and traders should be wary if oil takes out Thursday’s high of $34.70/bbl. and nears the lower bound of the trading gap.

Understanding the Core Fundamentals of Oil Trading
Understanding the Core Fundamentals of Oil Trading
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Understanding the Core Fundamentals of Oil Trading
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US Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (November 2019 – May 22, 2020)

US Crude Oil

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Crude Oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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