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Euro Weekly Technical Outlook Bearish Versus US Dollar & Swiss Franc

Euro Weekly Technical Outlook Bearish Versus US Dollar & Swiss Franc

2020-05-15 23:00:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst

Euro Outlook, Swiss Franc, US Dollar, EUR/USD, EUR/CHF – TALKING POINTS

  • EUR/USD downtrend may accelerate as pair tests critical support level
  • EUR/CHF compression zone causing pair to consolidate – what now?
  • Pair edging closer to the month when SNB lifted the floor on EUR/CHF

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

EUR/USD may retest a multi-year swing-low at 1.0653 if the pair break below a key inflection point at 1.0783 where it had recently dipped below but recovered the following day. If EUR/USD once again punctures below this level with follow-through, selling pressure may become particularly acute. The prospect of a meaningful recovery may then become less likely given the number of technical barriers EUR/USD would have to clear.

EUR/USD – Daily Chart


EUR/USD chart created using TradingView

The short-term retreat would also fall in-line with the broader pullback EUR/USD has been experiencing after it failed to clear February 2018 descending resistance This opens the door to flirting with a multi-tiered support range between 1.0663 and 1.0520. If those technical floorboards are ripped up by sellers, the basement at 1.0352 could be at risk of being flooded with eager sellers looking to capitalize on the pair’s decline.

EUR/USD – Monthly Chart


EUR/USD chart created using TradingView

EUR/CHF Forecast

EUR/CHF’s descent following the bearish engulfing on December 2, 2019 has recently turned into a far steeper and more formidable slope of depreciation and has accelerated the pair’s losses. EUR/CHF did briefly break above the newly-formed resistance channel, though upside momentum quickly evaporated and the pair resumed their downward trajectory.

EUR/CHF – Daily Chart

EURCHF Price Chart

EUR/CHF chart created using TradingView

Zooming in on the daily chart shows EUR/CHF is narrowly trading within a compression zone formed by descending resistance and stubborn support at 1.0508. Recent price action suggests a degree of indecision given the small-bodied nature of the candles and traders’ apparent reluctance to not climb above or below the technical cross sections that are pressuring it into a corner. However, a directional bias may soon be revealed.

EUR/CHF – Daily Chart

EURCHF chart

EUR/CHF chart created using TradingView

If EUR/CHF invalidates resistance, while there may be an initial bump higher, the pair’s gains may be capped by a key inflection point at 1.0610. On the other hand, if support cracks under the weight of growing selling pressure and the pair break below it with follow-through, EUR/CHF may experience heightened liquidation pressure.

EUR/CHF – Monthly Chart


EUR/CHF chart created using TradingView

The implications of such a move when taken from the perspective of a monthly view could be significant. EUR/CHF is less than 1.50 percent away from retesting a support area between 1.0334 and 1.0235. Breaking below the lowest tier would mark the softest reading since the pair plunged over 30 percent after the SNB removed the floor on the EUR/CHF exchange rate in January 2015.

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitriTwitter

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