News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Brainard Speech due at 16:50 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-27
  • Markets reacted earlier today after 10-year U.S. Treasury yields popped resulting in a move away from the South African rand as the U.S. dollar firmed – reducing the attractiveness of the carry trade. Get your market update from @WVenketas here:https://t.co/LPzqjA8Ysj https://t.co/2rfz0xrmeQ
  • US Dollar Ascending Triangle: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/analyst_picks/todays_picks/james_stanley/2021/09/27/US-Dollar-Ascending-Triangle-EUR-USD-EURUSD-GBP-USD-GBPUSD-USD-JPY-USDJPY-USD-CAD-USDCAD.html https://t.co/VSC47loQUx
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Williams Speech due at 16:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-27
  • The price of oil appears to be on track to test the yearly high ($76.98) after breaking out of the descending channel from earlier this year. Get your #crudeoil market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/QrzTFOCiw5 https://t.co/DQ0r1OsKF1
  • I read this morning that Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren is retiring 9 months earlier than his term expiration due to health issues. Hope he recovers quickly. Could change the calculus for the Fed's policy position next year as he was an incoming hawkish voter. #Tapering https://t.co/WDUeZl3Ziy
  • PRESIDENT BIDEN WILL GET COVID19 BOOSTER SHOT THIS AFTERNOON $PFE $MRNA
  • The next 24 hours is going to be interesting for monetary and fiscal policy insight - particularly in the US. Keeping tabs on the Dollar and $SPX https://t.co/K50JIHYPVd
  • BoE Governor Bailey says the rate of recovery has slowed over recent months and that slowing is continuing - Most MPC members view that outlook for the labour market as highly uncertain and to some degree likely to be resolved in fairly short order $GBP
  • The week starts off with elevated expectations for seasonal volatility, central bank speculation and critical political uncertainties. DailyFX's @JohnKicklighter highlights the dominating themes in the markets this week👇 https://t.co/h6xR9DUGge
Crude Oil Analysis Suggest Positive Momentum Remains Despite Uncertain Backdrop

Crude Oil Analysis Suggest Positive Momentum Remains Despite Uncertain Backdrop

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Crude Oil Price, Chart and Analysis.

  • OPEC+ and G20 meeting dominate oil’s fundamental outlook.
  • A series of higher lows suggest sentiment remains positive.

Crude Oil - Looking to the Future

The OPEC+ meeting last Thursday and the G20 meeting on Friday look set to trim oil output in the coming months, as producers react to the global growth slowdown. As we write, OPEC+ source reports are suggesting a 10 million barrel a day cut going forwardwith further wrangling and/or ratification at the G20 meeting. While oil’s fundamentals are still up in the air - but likely to be settled very shortly – the technical backdrop is suggesting a continuation of the recent rally in the oil complex.

Brent crude hit a multi-decade low of $24.75/bbl. at the beginning of April after having hit a peak of $71.06/bbl. on January 8 this year. Fears that the coronavirus would hammer global growth – currently being borne out – and infighting between OPEC and OPEC+ members left oil with little support. The daily chart now is beginning to tell a slightly different story. Oil remains volatile and any good news can cause a sharp spike higher. On April 2 oil traded in a 40%+ day range, as good news filtered through and although these gains were paired, oil pushed back above the April 2 high today, suggesting further upside. On the way, oil has made 8 higher lows in a row, another positive set-up, and in doing so has now moved back above the 20-dma for the first time since late-February. These higher lows have helped to form a short-term bullish pennant. As long as the supportive trend remains in place, oil looks to move higher.

Brent crude now needs to close above both the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $35.68/bbl. and the April 2 high at $36.40/bbl. before it can push higher. The daily chart also shows a ‘gap’ between $40.01/bbl. and $45.23/bbl. that needs to be filled. Gaps, an area where no trading took place, are normally filled, more so during times of extreme volatility. In the middle of this gap is 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $42.44/bbl.

While oil’s immediate future will be decided by the oil minister’s meeting, if the trends on the daily chart remain in place, then positive momentum should continue. However a break through support would see $30.00/bbl. as the short-term target.

Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (March 2019 - April 9, 2020)

Crude Oil Daily Price Chart

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Crude Oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES