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Oil Price Outlook: Crude Collapses into Downtrend Support / 18yr Low

Oil Price Outlook: Crude Collapses into Downtrend Support / 18yr Low

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Crude Oil Technical Price Outlook: WTI Weekly Trade Levels

Oil prices have collapsed nearly 70% off the yearly January highs with crude plummeting to levels not seen since 2001. While the broader risk remains lower, the decline takes price into downtrend support and we’re looking for a reaction heading into the close of March trade. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the oil price weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil price setup and more.

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Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Crude Oil Price Chart

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Crude Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Notes:In my previous OilWeekly Price Outlook we noted that Crude was, “testing a major confluence support zone at 45.23/45Look for topside exhaustion ahead of 50.59 IF oil prices are indeed heading lower on this stretch with a close below parallel support needed to mark resumption.” The WTI rebound registered a high at 48.64 before reversing sharply lower with price now poised to mark the fifth consecutive weekly decline. The losses take oil prices to 18-year lows with price continuing to respect the 25% parallel of a broad descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2015 / 2018 highs.

Weekly support remains with this slope, around ~20 with initial resistance eyed at the 2016 low at 26.03 and the 2016 low-week close at 29.07. Broader bearish invalidation stands at the median-line, currently around ~36.50. A break lower from here could fuel accelerated losses in oil prices with such a scenario exposing subsequent objectives at the 2001 low at 16.70 backed by the 1998 lows at 10.35.

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Bottom line:The oil price collapse is holding downtrend support, for now. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops- be on the lookout for topside exhaustion ahead of 29 on recoveries IF P crude is indeed heading lower with a close below this slope needed to keep the short-bias in play heading into the start of April trade. I’ll publish an updated Oil Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long crude oil - the ratio stands at +4.46 (81.69% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 8.92% higher than yesterday and 26.73% higher from last week
  • Short positions are4.81% higher than yesterday and 3.84% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil - US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Oil - US Crude MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 12% -3% 2%
Weekly -10% 28% 11%
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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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