USD/JPY Price, News and Analysis:
- USD/JPY continues to push lower.
- The 200-day moving average may not hold.
The Japanese Yen is Benefitting from the Recent US Dollar Sell-Off
Volatile price-swings in USD/JPY has seen the pair trade sell-off from its recent 11-month high of 112.25 down to a multi-year spike low of 101.12 and back up to near 112.00 again all in five weeks. A combination of risk-on and risk-off markets and the on-off strength of the US dollar has initiated multiple oversized candles, driving volatility to a three-year peak. Conditions are likely to remain volatile ahead of the end of the Japanese financial year on March 31.
The recent ‘V-shaped’ recovery in USD/JPY fell just short of target before the pair turned lower again. Friday’s extension of the sell-off has seen both the 50- and 200-day moving averages breached, and a convincing break and close below the longer-dated dma would add to the current bearish market sentiment and suggest a medium-term target around 104.50 to 105.00. It may need a fundamental driver to take prices lower, namely a further breakdown in the strength of the US dollar. To the upside, rallies should find initial resistance around the 109.50 – 109.70 level, before big figure resistance at 110.00.
For all market moving data and events please the DailyFX calendar
USD/JPY Daily Price Chart (July 2019 - March 27, 2020)
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -6% | -3% | -4% |
| Weekly | 17% | -23% | -13% |
The weekly chart shows that a long-running series of lower highs remain intact, suggesting further downside. Support at 104.42, the late April 2019 swing-low has only been broken by the March sell-off candle and aided in the recovery of USD/JPY afterwards.
USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart (June 2016 – March 27, 2020)
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What is your view on USD/JPY – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.
