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Japanese Yen (JPY) Outlook: USD/JPY Poised For a Breakout

Japanese Yen (JPY) Outlook: USD/JPY Poised For a Breakout

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


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USD/JPY Price, News and Analysis:

  • USD/JPY continues to push lower.
  • The 200-day moving average may not hold.
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The Japanese Yen is Benefitting from the Recent US Dollar Sell-Off

Volatile price-swings in USD/JPY has seen the pair trade sell-off from its recent 11-month high of 112.25 down to a multi-year spike low of 101.12 and back up to near 112.00 again all in five weeks. A combination of risk-on and risk-off markets and the on-off strength of the US dollar has initiated multiple oversized candles, driving volatility to a three-year peak. Conditions are likely to remain volatile ahead of the end of the Japanese financial year on March 31.

The recent ‘V-shaped’ recovery in USD/JPY fell just short of target before the pair turned lower again. Friday’s extension of the sell-off has seen both the 50- and 200-day moving averages breached, and a convincing break and close below the longer-dated dma would add to the current bearish market sentiment and suggest a medium-term target around 104.50 to 105.00. It may need a fundamental driver to take prices lower, namely a further breakdown in the strength of the US dollar. To the upside, rallies should find initial resistance around the 109.50 – 109.70 level, before big figure resistance at 110.00.

For all market moving data and events please the DailyFX calendar

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart (July 2019 - March 27, 2020)

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -6% -3% -4%
Weekly 17% -23% -13%
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The weekly chart shows that a long-running series of lower highs remain intact, suggesting further downside. Support at 104.42, the late April 2019 swing-low has only been broken by the March sell-off candle and aided in the recovery of USD/JPY afterwards.

USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart (June 2016 – March 27, 2020)

USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on USD/JPY – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.