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Gold Price Outlook Hinges on 2013 High After Best Week Since 2008

Gold Price Outlook Hinges on 2013 High After Best Week Since 2008

Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst

Gold Prices, XAU/USD - Technical Forecast

  • Gold prices surge in best week since 2008, bouncing off key support
  • XAU/USD has 2013 high to clear to regain more upside momentum
  • 4-hour chart paints near-term outlook that could go either way next

GoldWeekly Recap

Gold prices headed for their best week since 2008, rallying about 8.25% over the course of the past 5 trading days. From a fundamental standpoint, the anti-fiat yellow metal capitalized on a broad pullback in the US Dollar as equities soared. Helping to contribute to this dynamic was a combination of open-ended QE from the Federal Reserve and the US $2 trillion fiscal stimulus package to help combat the coronavirus outbreak.

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XAU/USD Weekly Chart

XAU/USD Weekly Price Chart

Gold Chart Created in TradingView

Gold Broader Outlook

Focusing on technical analysis, XAU/USD bounced after prices found support at lows from the latter half of last year. This makes for a barrier between 1445 to 1459 along with what could be a potential rising trend line from May 2019 on the daily chart below. Gold prices then climbed through lows achieved in January and February which make for an inflection point between 1536 to 1550.

The aggressive rise in gold last week - matching gains observed 12 years ago – sent the yellow metal back towards peaks reached earlier this month. That makes for key resistance between 1679 to 1703. Coincidentally, this range includes the 2013 high at 1697. If XAU/USD can manage to clear this barrier and confirm a daily close above it, gold could set course to target peaks last seen in 2012 at 1795. On the way bullion could encounter the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 1721.

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Gold Daily Chart

Gold Daily Chart

Gold Chart Created in TradingView

Gold Near Term Picture

Zooming in on the 4-hour chart can help paint a better picture of what could be in store in the near term to help account for elevated volatility. Here I have pointed out that gold’s ascent slowed as prices consolidated between 1594 and 1645. There may be a support line forming from March 19. A third validation point can confirm this rising trend line and if it holds, gold could be guided higher to retest peaks from earlier this month.

Yet I have also noted the presence of negative RSI divergence, a sign of fading upside momentum. This can precede a turn lower, particularly if gold pushes under 1594 and confirms the breakout. If the latter is the case, the yellow metal could set up to test the inflection point between 1536 to 1550 pointed on the daily chart. If this area is cleared, a retest of current March lows could be due.

Gold BULLISH
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Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -3% 5% -2%
Weekly -4% 16% -1%
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XAU/USD 4-Hour Chart

XAU/USD Four Hour Price Chart

Gold Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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