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Oil Price Technical Forecast: RSI on Cusp of Flashing Buy Signal

Oil Price Technical Forecast: RSI on Cusp of Flashing Buy Signal

David Song, Strategist

Crude Oil Price Talking Points

The price of oil bounces back from a fresh yearly low ($20.52) and crude may stage a larger recovery over the coming days as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is on the cusp of flashing a textbook buy signal.

Technical Forecast for Crude Oil: Neutral

The broader outlook for crude is encompassed with bearish indications as a ‘death-cross’ formation materialized in late February, with the 50-Day SMA ($47.57) crossing below the 200-Day SMA ($54.38).

The negative slope in the simple moving averagescast a bearish outlook for crude, with the recent series of lower highs and low in the price of oil triggering a break of the 2016 low ($26.05).

Oil Daily Chart

Oil Chart

Source: Trading View

However, the recent series of lower highs and lows unravels as the price of oil bounces back from a fresh yearly low ($20.52), and crude may stage a larger rebound over the coming days as the bearish momentum appears to be abating.

Recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) raises the scope for a larger rebound in oil prices as the indictor breaks out of the bearish formation carried over from the previous month, with the oscillator on the cusp of flashing a textbook buy signal as it bounces back from oversold territory.

The move above the Fibonacci overlap around $25.40 (78.6% expansion) to $26.20 (100% expansion) brings the $31.00 (78.6% expansion) to $32.50 (50% expansion) region on radar, with the next area of interest coming in around $34.80 (61.8% expansion).

It remains to be seen if crude will fill the price gap from earlier this month amid the string of failed attempts to close above the $34.80 (61.8% expansion) region, with oil prices at risk of facing range bound conditions as the broader outlook is encompassed with bearish indications.

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.