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Japanese Yen Price Outlook: USD/JPY Rips from Multi-Year Lows

Japanese Yen Price Outlook: USD/JPY Rips from Multi-Year Lows

2020-03-14 16:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Japanese Yen Technical Price Outlook: DXY Weekly Trade Levels

  • Japanese Yen technical trade levels update – Weekly Chart
  • USD/JPY rebounds off long-term downtrend support confluence at 100.71-101.26
  • Near-term recovery vulnerable into yearly open at 108.62

The Japanese Yen was weaker against the US Dollar this week with USD/JPY rallying more than 2.1% to trade at just above the 107-handle ahead of the New York close on Friday. The move has nearly pared the entire monthly loss and although further gains are likely near-term, price remains within the confines of a broad descending technical formation and we’re looking for possible price exhaustion just higher. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie trade setup and more.

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Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on Tradingview

Notes:In last month’s Japanese Yen Weekly Price Outlook we noted that, “The USD/JPY breakout is approaching initial resistance targets just higher.” Price broke through multi-year pitchforkresistance before failing just pips ahead of the 2019 high-week close at 111.54 (weekly close registered at 111.59). USD/JPY sold off sharply the following weeks as broader risk assets plummeted on growing concerns over the Coronavirus global pandemic. The decline broke below September channel support before reversing higher this week off confluence support at 100.71-101.26 – a region defined by the 1999 swing low, the 50% retracement of the 2011 advance and converges on parallel support (red).

USD/JPY marked the largest single-week price range since June of 2016- the week the low was registered. That said, the immediate focus is on initial weekly resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the 2020 range at 108 with the 2020 objective yearly open just higher at 108.62- both areas of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached. Initial support once again rests at the 2018 low at 104.63 with a weekly close below needed to market resumption. Critical support steady at 100.71-101.26 – weakness beyond this threshold would expose the 2016 swing lows at 98.79.

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Bottom line:The USD/JPY breakdown has responded to confluence downtrend support this week and while we could see further recovery in the week ahead, the broader risk remains weighted to the downside after last month’s failed attempt to breach slope resistance. Form a trading standpoint, look for topside exhaustion on a recovery towards the yearly open IF price is indeed heading lower. I’ll publish and updated Japanese Yen Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment – USD/JPY Price Chart

USD/JPY Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/JPY - the ratio stands at +1.92 (65.72% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are13.79% lower than yesterday and 26.08% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 12.74% lower than yesterday and 26.48% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/JPY trading biasfrom a sentiment standpoint.
USD/JPY MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 3% 5% 4%
Weekly 17% 12% 15%
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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