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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Reversal Risks Larger March Correction

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Reversal Risks Larger March Correction

Michael Boutros,
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Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices are weaker into the close of the week with XAU/USD down more than 3.2% to trade at 1590 mid-day Friday. Bullion registered fresh seven-year highs on Monday as growing Coronavirus concerns began to ravage market sentiment and despite one of the largest Equity market sell-offs in history, gold prices could not stay supported. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the risk remains for a deeper correction near-term with gold set to close the week / month nearly 6% off the highs. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold trade setup and more.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that the, “A breakout in gold prices is underway with the rally now targeting the first resistance hurdle at channel resistance.” The level in focus was 1525/27 – price ripped higher this week with XAU/USD registering a high at 1689 before reversing off confluence trendline resistance. The subsequent reversal is on pace to mark the largest weekly decline since November of last year and the largest weekly range since November 2016.

The risk remains for a deeper setback on the heels of this reversal with a close below the 61.8% retracement at 1586 exposing 1546 and the 1522/26 pivot zone- both regions of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached. Look for initial resistance back at 1625 with a breach above the high-close at 1643 needed to attempt the next leg higher in price- subsequent resistance objectives at the upper parallel (currently ~1680s) and the 78.6% retracement at 1733.

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Bottom line: Gold remains at risk for exhaustion on the back of this week’s reversal off confluence uptrend resistance. Expect more sideways movement in the coming weeks but from a trading standpoint, the threat remains for a deeper pullback while below 1643. Ultimately, a larger correction may offer more favorable entries near uptrend support. I’ll publish and updated Gold Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.51 (71.50% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are7.50% lower than yesterday and 6.94% higher from last week
  • Short positions are14.06% lower than yesterday and 28.84% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Gold Bullish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -7% 12% -1%
Weekly -9% 19% -1%
Learn how shifts in Gold retail positioning impact trend
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.