News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • US Indices are trading lower on news of potential increases in the capital gains tax rate. DOW -0.77% SPX -0.62% NDX -0.56% RUT +1.08% $DIA $SPY $QQQ $IWM
  • Ethereum (ETH/USD) Fresh Highs; BTC/USD, Dogecoin Back Down https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2021/04/22/Ethereum-ETH-USD-fresh-highs-Bitcoin-BTC-USD-Dogecoin-DOGE-Back-Down.html https://t.co/vgZRauTKnt
  • US 5yr TIPS Auction: - Draw -1.631% (prev. -1.575%) - WI -1.63% - Bid/Cover 2.50 (prev. 2.86) - Allotted at high 41.74% $USD
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.27%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 67.27%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/YFcEcIW5zJ
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.14% Gold: -0.69% Silver: -1.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/guhQLALwYf
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.04% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.09% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.37% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.59% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.61% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/X568Rs9WtB
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.04% US 500: 0.01% France 40: 0.01% FTSE 100: -0.05% Wall Street: -0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/FocvtyS5wk
  • #Gold rose to a fresh two month high today just shy of the 1,800 level. The precious metal has since dropped slightly lower and is currently trading around 1,780 as US 10yr yields rose to an intraday high. $XAU $GLD https://t.co/oeY1Hkh0Eg
  • US 10yr Treasury yields just hit a fresh intraday high around the 1.58% level. Yields remain far off of the pandemic highs set around 1.75% in late March. $USD https://t.co/GCxSdIvBEl
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/o2NBAy00hQ
Gold Price Outlook Bullish Despite XAU/USD Worst Month Since 2018

Gold Price Outlook Bullish Despite XAU/USD Worst Month Since 2018

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Gold Technical Forecast

  • Gold prices experienced worst month this year and since Summer 2018
  • XAU/USD is still struggling to resume the downtrend from September
  • The yellow metal may rise ahead on preliminary bullish reversal hints

Get our free guide to help build confidence in your gold trading strategy!

Gold prices experienced the worst month this year so far, dropping about 3.24 percent and slowly eating away at the impressive rally undertaken from June to September. This was also the bleakest performance since the Summer of 2018 as the anti-fiat yellow metal lost in favor to a cautiously stronger US Dollar. Where does this leave XAU/USD going forward from a technical standpoint?

Earlier this month, I noted how gold was attempting to break under rising support from July (pink parallel lines on the chart below). That attempt failed as prices bounced and then got stuck under key resistance at 1480. Now, the precious metal once again finds itself pushing for a downside breakout. However, prices have yet to breach the horizontal psychological barrier between 1445 and 1459.

A daily close under this area opens the door to resuming the near-term downtrend and reversing gold’s rally from earlier this year. That places the focus on the next support area at 1433 which has its beginnings from August 2013 highs. However, there are signals that gold’s near-term direction bias could favor the upside in the week ahead.

Most notably a Morning Star bullish candlestick pattern formed at the conclusion of the past 5 trading days. With upside confirmation, this could mark the beginning of a lasting upward bias, once again invalidating the break under long-term rising support. Positive RSI divergence is also present, showing fading downside momentum which can precede a turn higher or translate into ongoing consolidation.

Want to learn about using trader positioning as another element in developing trading strategies? Join me every week on Wednesdays at 1:00 GMT!

Gold Daily Chart

Gold Daily Chart

From a near-term standpoint, zooming in on the 4-hour chart already reveals an upside breakout. Descending resistance from the beginning of November (red lines on the chart below) was aggressively taken out. There was also the presence of positive RSI divergence in the lead-up to gold’s push above resistance.

Upside confirmation, via further closes higher on the 4-hour chart, could pave the way for a climb over the next 5 trading days. For follow-through, keep a close eye on the November 20 high at 1478. Taking this out exposes the November 1 swing high. A drop through 1459 - 1445 invalidates preliminary bullish signals.

Gold 4-Hour Chart

Gold 4-Hour Price Chart

Gold Charts Created Using TradingView

FX Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky,Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES