Australian Dollar Outlook in AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD, GBP/AUD
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AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD, GBP/AUD Technical Forecast
- Australian Dollar traded sideways as trade war fears waxed and waned
- AUD/USD and AUD/JPY may see cautious bounce as momentum fades
- AUD/CAD eyeing key support, GBP/AUD may top after resistance held
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Australian Dollar traded in a narrow range, failing to find meaningful progress against the US Dollar last week as US-China trade war fears waxed and waned. AUD/USD remains wedged between the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements at 0.6769 and 0.6830 respectively. A daily close under the former opens the door to prolonging the breakout through rising support from October - pink lines below.
Positive RSI divergence warns that downside momentum is fading however. That could result in another bounce on support as prices climb towards 0.6830. A push through this price exposes 0.6868. On the flip side, a downside breakout paves the way for testing the 78.6% level at 0.6726 on its way towards current 2019 lows.
AUD/USD Daily Chart
Much of the same could be said when comparing the Aussie to the Japanese Yen. AUD/JPY is still adhering to a Rising Wedge pointed out earlier this month. Prices are right on the floor of the bearish chart pattern where a downside breakout and daily close under 73.35 opens the door to reversing the uptrend from late August. Positive RSI divergence is present here as well though. That may precede a bounce towards 74.48.
AUD/JPY Daily Chart
AUD/CAD is also facing sideways price action, but it is being guided cautiously higher by a near-term rising support line from the beginning of October. That may eventually push the pair towards September and October highs, a psychological barrier between 0.9105 to 0.9144. Otherwise, a daily close under 0.8967 opens the door to revisiting October lows as the Canadian Dollar appreciates.
AUD/CAD Daily Chart
Things are looking more interesting in GBP/AUD after the British Pound was once again unable to clear the key psychological barrier between 1.9012 and 1.9093. This has left behind acute negative RSI divergence, showing fading upside momentum. That could lead to a top as prices fall towards the November low at 1.8547. Keep an eye on what could be a potential rising support line from October – red-dashed line below. Otherwise, closing above resistance exposes the 50% Fibonacci extension at 1.9313.
GBP/AUD Daily Chart
FX Trading Resources
- Having trouble with your strategy? Here’s the #1 mistake that traders make
- See how the Australian Dollar is viewed by the trading community at the DailyFX Sentiment Page
- Just getting started? See our beginners’ guide for FX traders
--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.