Swiss Franc Forecast: CHF/JPY, AUD/CHF, CAD/CHF, NZD/CHF
Swiss Franc Talking Points:
- The Swiss Franc approaches several key technical levels to watch for in coming weeks
- The Franc is under pressure versus the yen as the 200-week moving average keeps overhead pressure on the cross
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CHFJPY Technical Outlook
The Swiss Franc remains under pressure as it trades below its 200-week moving average. After several failed attempts to break above its 200-week moving average in previous years, it now remains well off the average. The weekly RSI hovering directly below the 50 mark at 47.73 indicates no clear direction for the cross heading into the final month of 2019.
CHFJPY Weekly Chart with 200-Week Moving Average
On a daily time frame, the picture for the Swiss Franc appears bearish for the near term with a recent break under the 200-day moving average. Although October saw the cross-exhibit strength - as the 200DMA was briefly surmounted - the enthusiasm was short lived as it failed to overtake the upper-limit of a downtrend established in 2018. With RSI turning down, continued weakness is expected, although a moved towards the lower trendline may not materialize before the year is up.
CHFJPY Daily Chart with 200-Day Moving Average
AUDCHF Technical Outlook
Bearish momentum continues through a downward trend in the AUDCHF cross, trading below its 200 weekly moving average. The outlook on the weekly chart supports a bullish bias for the Swiss Franc after the cross made several attempts to retake the key moving average but failed, suggesting further losses may be ahead. That said, a key level to watch going forward is the recent low of 0.6500 set from August.
A shift higher from that point failed to materialize into a new trend and surrendered strength before moving lower from a previous high at the beginning of this month. A move lower in coming weeks would be unsurprising with the absence of any key technical levels before looking to test it’s August low.
AUDCHF Weekly Chart with 200-Week Moving Average
On the daily timeframe the outlook for the Swiss franc appears to remain bullish verses the Aussie dollar – suggesting AUD/CHF could fall lower. After a break under the 200-day moving average in May, the cross remained under pressure and has moved to form a bearish pennant. A break under the bottom of the pennant could give way to retest its August swing-low of 0.6500 and go on to make new lows.
AUDCHF Daily Chart with 200-Day Moving Average
CADCHF Technical Outlook
When faced against its Canadian counterpart, the Franc has formed a symmetrical wedge, with no clear direction manifesting since moving off a multi-year high set back in September of 2017. As consolidation continues the 200-weekly moving average has begun to turn higher. A break above the upper-bound of the wedge could send the cross on a more bullish path. A drive higher could be further supported with momentum if the high from 2017 was also breached. For now, watch for the Franc to consolidate further as the wedge continues to narrow.
CADCHF Weekly Chart with 200-Week Moving Average
The daily time frame also sees the Franc consolidating versus the Lonnie. The 200-day moving average has moved down to meet price action as the same symmetrical wedge has formed and continues to tighten from 2018.
CADCHF Daily Price Chart with 200-Day Moving Average
NZDCHF Technical Outlook
Facing the New Zealand dollar, the technical outlook for the Franc appears bullish. After putting in a low from August the pair has gained some momentum, although it now faces resistance from a downtrend in place from earlier this year and the 200-day moving average which it also failed to defeat back in July.
NZDCHF Daily Chart with 200-Day Moving Average
--Written by Thomas Westwater, Intern Analyst for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Thomas on Twitter @FxWestwater
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.