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Dow Jones, DAX, & FTSE Weekly Technical Forecast

Dow Jones, DAX, & FTSE Weekly Technical Forecast

2019-11-02 10:00:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
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Indices Technical Highlights:

  • Dow Jones working on a breakout to follow broader market
  • DAX pushing towards test of 2018 level, ~13200
  • FTSE struggling, broader patterns still under construction

Check out the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook for major markets and currencies in the DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts.

Dow Jones working on a breakout to follow broader market

To end last week the Dow pushed higher in an attempt to break out of the top of a wedge that has been under development since June. A sustained breakout will put the Dow on track to test an important top-side trend-line running over from January 2018.

A touch of the aforementioned line of resistance might induce a pullback in the near-term, if not more. The top-side trend-line also makes up the top of a broad Reverse Symmetrical Triangle (RST), known to some as a Megaphone pattern. It’s a macro outlook, but the pattern demonstrates growing instability since early 2018 that could result in a major top.

Getting back to the near-term, there is some room to run a bit before climbing over the record high at 27398 to the 2018 trend-line situated near 27580. Should that threshold be met it will be important to watch how price action plays out. A swift rejection could have the market moving reverse for a bit.

Dow Jones Daily Chart (wedge-break, Jan ’18 t-line in focus)

Daily DJI Chart

Dow Jones Chart by TradingView

DAX pushing towards test of 2018 level, ~13200

The DAX continues to climb with impressive persistence. The extended nature of the index presents risk to new longs, but also keeps risk elevated against those looking to bet against the market rallying further. There is some good resistance running over from swing-highs created during May/June of last year very near 13200 that could spark a turnabout worthy of trading for a pullback. Also running in that vicinity is an upper parallel linked to the trend-line off the August low.

DAX Daily Chart (nearing test of 13200)

Daily DAX Chart

DAX Chart by TradingView

FTSE struggling, broader patterns still under construction

The FTSE crept just above the trend-line running down off the July high, but did-so via time, that is the sideways movement set price outside the trend-line, not a forceful push by buyers. Not exactly an encouraging breakout. All of this is taking shape around the 200-day MA, the long-term average that has been a factor on numerous occasions over the months (orange highlights).

The trend-line off the October low is helping keep the near-term upside intact, where a break might help weaken the Footsie. A strong push above 7347 could help accelerate price to the September high 7439. Looking more broadly the index could still be carving out a head-and-shoulders top or wedge formation. More time needed before drawing any concrete conclusions.

FTSE Daily Chart (trend-lines/200-day in play in the near-term)

Daily FTSE Chart

UK 100 Index Chart by TradingView

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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