Gold Technical Forecast: Neutral
- Gold prices are attempting an upward push, will this find follow through?
- Resuming the uptrend entails taking out the September high at 1557.10
- Floor seems well-defined at 1480 – 1485, clearing it may escalate losses
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After spending most of last week consolidating, gold prices finally made an upward push on Friday. From a technical standpoint, what is interesting is that XAU/USD appeared to confine to a rising trend line from June on the daily chart below. Further confirmation will be needed however to argue that the precious metal is getting ready to resume its dominant uptrend since late May.
Over the past 5 trading days, bullion reinforced near-term horizontal support which is a range between 1485.40 and 1480.00. This area also coincidentally consists of the April 2013 high. In the event that the precious metal turns lower ahead, gold will have to push through this floor in addition to taking out this rising trend line. Confirming this action with a daily close would pave the way for a reversal of the dominant uptrend.
Waiting for gold under key support is what could be a potential rising support line from July – marked as the pink line below. Just below it lays the August 2013 high at 1433.85. If these barriers are taken out, that could result in a further descent towards the March 2014 high at 1392.08. But even that may not be enough to fully overturn gold’s rise as it is being upheld in the long-term by a rising support line from August 2018.
Gold Daily Chart
Zooming in on the 4-hour chart to get a better idea of what could be in store in the near-term, gold is heading into a psychological barrier roughly between 1516.77 and 1524.10. Rising through this area would open the door to retesting the September high at 1557.10. That is what stands between the precious metal pursuing the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 1594.11.
Gold 4-Hour Chart
Gold Charts Created Using TradingView
IG Client Sentiment
Taking a look at market positioning, the latest readings in IG Client Sentiment from September 20, 16:00 GMT are offering a mixed gold-contrarian trading bias. Positioning is more net-long than the prior day but is less net-long from last week, speaking to a lack in conviction. Keep a close eye on these readings if the precious metal looks to find follow through on its upward push.
To learn more about how to use sentiment in your own trading strategy , join me each week on Wednesday’s at 00:00 GMT as I uncover what IG Client Sentiment has to say about the prevailing trends in financial markets and follow me on Twitter here @ddubrovskyFX for timely updates!
FX Trading Resources
- Having trouble with your strategy? Here’s the #1 mistake that traders make
- See how the Gold is viewed by the trading community at the DailyFX Sentiment Page
- Just getting started? See our beginners’ guide for FX traders
--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky,Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter
