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US Dollar Technical Forecast: Bidding for a Breakout?

US Dollar Technical Forecast: Bidding for a Breakout?

2019-08-18 09:00:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist

USD Technical Outlook:

  • Stuck in the grind, but that may change soon
  • Have to respect environment until it does

For the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook, check out the Q3 USD Forecast.

US Dollar stuck in the grind, but that may change soon

The US Dollar hasn’t been the easiest handle for a while now, with volatility hovering at sub-optimal levels. The shot higher during the first half of 2018 led to an upward grind, but that grind looks poised to finally resolve itself into a momentum move sometime soon.

At this time with the trend generally positive it seen as likely a top-side breakout will result, however; it can’t be ruled out that a downside trend buckle develops. When could this breakout take shape? It could come at any time, and while it may or may not be next week, traders need to be ready when it happens.

A strong climb above 100 will give clearance above an upper parallel and the line off the 2017 high. This could have the 2017 high near 104 in focus. It will take a strong push lower and break of 95.84 to get the Dollar Index rolling downhill.

In the short-run, there is resistance not far ahead a top-side slope from last year that is in confluence with the

August 1 high at 98.93. The sharp reversal to start the month indicates a key inflection point, and the way things have been going with moves losing momentum traders will want to watch for signs of a turn back down around the monthly high. Looking lower, support first comes in at the lower parallel rising up from the June low.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to find out how changes in positioning in major markets could signal the next price move.

US Dollar Weekly Chart (resolution coming soon?)

DXY Weekly Price Chart

US Dollar Daily Chart (levels, lines high and low to watch)

DXY Daily Price Chart

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX

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