Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Price to Find Little Respite
Australian Dollar Technical Forecast:
- After a record-setting downward spiral, AUDUSD may continue to falter as fundamentals deteriorate
- IG Client Sentiment also suggests the Aussie Dollar will continue lower
- Interested in trading Aussie Dollar crosses? Check out our economic calendar for all upcoming Australian data.
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUDUSD Priceto Find Little Respite
The Australian Dollar has suffered three consecutive weeks of declines versus its US Dollar counterpart and technical levels will likely provide little respite. After AUDUSD disposed of support marked by June’s low around 0.6832, the pair is wading into unfamiliar territory – trading at the lowest level since March 2009. While price action from a decade ago may look to offer a modicum of technical influence, AUDUSD finds itself in a position that is far from encouraging.
AUDUSD Technical Forecast:Bearish
To that end, sparse technical support alongside a deterioration in fundamental themes would make it presumptuous to call a bottom at this point. That said, a developing trendline beneath AUDUSD, marked by the lows in March and May could look to momentarily buoy price around 0.6700. On the other hand, topside resistance is plentiful.
Prior support at 0.6832 now looks to offer resistance and will be one of the first levels AUDUSD will have to surpass in any attempted recovery. Similarly, the low from 2010 at 0.6827 could work in conjunction with June’s low to rebuke price. While the technical outlook suggests the Aussie Dollar may continue to slide, retail traders are convinced it is oversold. Follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis on the fundamental and technical themes facing AUDUSD in the week ahead.
Retail trader data shows 80.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.99 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since July 19 when AUDUSD traded near 0.70565; price has moved 3.7% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 9.4% lower than Thursday and 18.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 17.4% lower than Thursday and 42.7% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger AUDUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias. To learn more about IG Client Sentiment, sign up for my IG Client Sentiment Walkthrough Webinar.
--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX
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