News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • #2020election polls continue to show Democratic nominee Joe Biden maintaining a strong lead #Trump Supreme Court nomination may throw a wrench into bipartisan stimulus talks #AUDUSD is trading at former resistance-turned-support. What happens if it breaks? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/09/27/AUDUSD-Analysis-Ahead-of-Presidential-Debate-Supreme-Court-Nominee-Battle-.html
  • USD/MXN pushes higher as a long-awaited correction in the US Dollar gets underway. Get your #currencies update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/QMpun4KOgO https://t.co/KAYojshy0P
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/KXMefr6a3r
  • Join analyst @DavidJSong at 6:30 PM ET/10:30 PM GMT for your weekly update on key news trading events. Register here: https://t.co/gBlrRpCc55 https://t.co/5FwNLSVYje
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EDT on DailyFX! https://t.co/lxd5fZnn4H
  • EUR/USD fell sharply last week and there are few signs yet that the selling is over. However, a bounce is likely before the decline resumes. Get your #currencies update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/BxglKuKVhj https://t.co/8nJQXhUTHI
  • The week ahead has many systemic issues that take control of the markets, but scheduled data is heavily skewed to the Dollar. Here is my video for the week ahead: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/09/26/SP-500-Break-Risk-and-Dollar-Charge-Sees-Accelerants-Next-Week.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/PL3KZhn1HV
  • GBP turbulence persists as investors eye the next round of EU-UK Brexit negotiations. Cautious optimism signals a deal is near. Get your #currencies update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/WjU4oYpmf7 https://t.co/QJp3jpS3Ui
  • The AB=CD pattern is simple once you know how to spot it and draw the proper Fibonacci retracements. Make your trading strategy as simple as ABCD here: https://t.co/AKmlmaAZBS https://t.co/ukvZfr6BXf
  • BoE’s Tenreyro says evidence on negative rates are “encouraging” Meanwhile, STOXX Europe Banks Index resides at all time lows https://t.co/bBYcLrtXhj
AUDUSD Weekly Outlook: Aussie Bulls Look for Signs- Price Dips to .69

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook: Aussie Bulls Look for Signs- Price Dips to .69

2019-07-27 16:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

The Australian Dollar is poised to mark the largest single week decline against the US Dollar since April after turning form critical downtrend resistance this week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly price chart heading into the close of the month. Review my latestWeekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie trade setup and more.

New to Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Aussie Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

AUDUSD Price Chart

Notes:In my last AUD/USD Weekly Price Outlook we noted that Aussie was, “trading just below a critical pivot zone we’ve been tracking for months now at 7020/42.” Price tested this threshold for nearly five weeks before breaking down sharply with the decline now probing below the monthly opening-range low / yearly low-week close at 6911/24.

A close below this level would leave the risk for further losses into the close of the month with such a scenario targeting the lower parallel (near ~6880s) - critical support steady at the 2016 low / low-week close at 6827/55. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached – any lower would expose the yearly swing low at 6745. Key resistance remains at 7020/42 with a breach / above confluence resistance at the 61.8% retracement / slope resistance at 7118 needed to suggest a larger trend reversal is underway.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line:Aussie reversed from confluence downtrend resistance last week and leaves AUD/USD at risk for steeper losses. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce short exposure / lower protective stops on a move into channel support. Numerous technical factors on related price action in the USD majors casts doubt on the validity of this breakdown and ultimately, we’ll be on the lookout for possible downside exhaustion ahead of the yearly lows for guidance. I’ll publish an updated AUD/USD scalp setup once we get further clarity on near-term Aussie price action.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then-Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Aussie Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD

AUDUSD Trader Sentiment Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at a staggering +1.94 (65.9% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since July 19; price has moved 1.9% lower since then
  • The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since June 21st
  • Long positions are 5.7% higher than yesterday and 31.2% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 21.9% lower than yesterday and 33.4% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Aussie retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant Australia / US Data Releases

Australian Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES