Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, DAX 30 Weekly Technical Forecast:
- The Dow Jones trades beneath a horizontal trendline near all-time highs
- Elsewhere, the DAX 30 trades within a channel it etched throughout the month of June
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Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, DAX 30 Weekly Technical Forecast
The fundamental implications of the upcoming weekend cannot be understated with President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping slated to meet in Osaka, Japan to hash out trade differences. That said, fundamental forces will undoubtedly drive price action next week, but attempting to forecast an infinite number of different deal-or-no deal scenarios is futile. Instead, we can look to price and the corresponding technical levels that will exert their influence regardless of the Summit’s outcome.
Dow Jones Technical Forecast
With the most at stake, the Dow Jones is first on our list. After closing Friday’s session slightly lower for the week, the Industrial Average finds itself narrowly above nearby trendline support from February. If traders come into Monday’s session disappointed by the Summit, the trendline is the first line of defense and is likely to give way to subsequent support around 26,285 and 26,065. Beneath 26,065, the Index lacks notable support until 25,655.
Dow Jones Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (February – June) (Chart 1)
Topside resistance is sparse aside from a horizontal trendline at 26,705 – the highs in April and May. Should the Index pierce 26,705, the all-time high at 26,952 marks the next major level for the Industrial Average to break before it enters uncharted territory.
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Nasdaq 100 Technical Forecast
The tech-heavy Nasdaq is likely to experience the largest price swings of the indices highlighted in this article, as constituents like Micron have considerable portions of their revenue derived from China. As of Friday’s close, the Index trades slightly beneath resistance imposed by prior all-time highs in September and October 2018. Similarly, subsequent resistance will be offered by May’s high around 7,860.
Nasdaq 100 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January – June) (Chart 2)
To the lower side, 7,500 looks to be the nearest point of support, but likely lacks the technical clout to stall price action derived from a catalyst of this magnitude. With that in mind, the Fib level slightly beneath 7,400 marks the last line of defense before the Nasdaq could look to threaten the 200-day moving average and ascending trendline around 7,125.
DAX 30 Technical Forecast
Finally, the DAX 30 finds itself comfortably within a channel formed during June. The lower bound will provide immediate support alongside a Fibonacci level around 12,300. Subsequent horizontal support resides around 12,210.
DAX 30 Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (May - June) (Chart 3)
Conversely, the German Index will look to surmount resistance at 12,465 – marked by the high in early May and the swing high in September 2018. A break above that level would allow bulls to make a run at the upper bound of the channel. If the United States and China do reach a deal, one could argue the odds of a US-EU trade war increase and the uncertainty may weigh on the DAX 30.
--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX
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