News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • US Dollar Price Action Setups: GBP/USD, AUD/USD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/analyst_picks/todays_picks/james_stanley/2020/10/26/US-Dollar-Price-Action-Setups-GBPUSD-GBP-USD-AUDUSD-AUD-USD.html https://t.co/kodr21qCu9
  • Precious Metals Update: #Gold 1903.67 (+0.09%), #Aluminum 1842.50 (-0.22%), and #Copper 6867.50 (-0.79%) [delayed]
  • Gold prices remain in a falling wedge pattern that’s been building for more than two months. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/LYSHloh85Z https://t.co/nGqnQKL0KM
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.06% Oil - US Crude: -0.08% Silver: -1.15% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/AnzuzBr9Yc
  • Germany 30 IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their most net-long Germany 30 since Mar 19 when Germany 30 traded near 8,568.70. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Germany 30 weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/tsMt1UlZGO
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.76%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 73.37%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/D4fyK6ilmD
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.19% Germany 30: -0.20% France 40: -0.25% US 500: -2.42% Wall Street: -2.93% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/2bszQp27Do
  • Commodities Update: NYM WTI Crude 38.38 (-3.69%), ICE Brent Crude 40.29 (-3.54%), NYM NYH Gasoline 111.08 (-2.47%). [delayed
  • Get your Monday market update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/iUCcev4Dp2
  • US Equity Update: $DJI -3.11% $SPX -2.58% $NDX -2.38% $RUT -2.96% $VIX +18.40% [Delayed]
Gold Price Forecast: The Better Precious Metal Shows Its Mettle

Gold Price Forecast: The Better Precious Metal Shows Its Mettle

2019-05-18 19:00:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

Gold Price Forecast Talking Points:

  • The ONE Thing:The US Dollar remains a headwind to the rise in Gold, and the technical analysis duo of Ichimoku & Trendlines shows the favorable technical picture of XAU/USD is hanging by a thread
  • The Gold/Silver ratio has broken above its historical extreme, and the effect of Bitcoin and cryptos as a new-haven should not be underestimated
  • Sentiment holds broadening bearish contrarian bias per IGCS for Gold

Technical Forecast for the gold price / XAUUSD: Neutral in USD Terms, Bullish in Non-USD Terms

Gold

Chart Source: ProRealTime charting, IG UK Price Feed. Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

For Gold bulls, the price action of this week should likely earn a tally in the loss column, at least if it is looked to in US Dollar terms. The chart above shows a rejection of the gold price into resistance and bullish sentiment came roaring back.

The ‘Sell in May’ moniker definitely held its validity thus far with all major stock indices, except the Swiss Stock Market down in USD terms. This helped Gold to rally in its traditional form as a haven asset or hedge that was discussed last week.

However, with the strengthening US Dollar, it is difficult to favor Gold in USD terms. Rather, traders may prefer to only look at a long-Gold position as expressed in other currencies like the EUR, GBP, or CNY.

Gold in CNH vs. Gold in USD

Gold

Data source: Bloomberg

Gold-Silver Ratio Takes Out 20-Yr Range

Gold

Data source: Bloomberg

The Gold-Silver ratio is a way that traders have looked to likely limits of how far gold or silver could strengthen. However, the rules may become re-written thanks to cryptos taken a lot of the haven-demand.

Access our Bitcoin Trading Guide Here to learn more about Bitcoin, as a new ‘mania’ may take hold

Above you can see the ratio has moved toward 90, whereas historically the 80-level has been firm resistance. It is possible that historical limits may be stretched due to the silver, historically referred to as

‘poor man’s gold’ being eschewed in favor of Bitcoin.

Sentiment Insight: Bias for Downside Emerges From IG Client Sentiment

Gold

Data source: IG Client Sentiment

Retail trader data shows 77.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.35 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.5% higher than yesterday and 3.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.7% lower than yesterday and 19.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias (emphasis mine.)

We’ll see.

Follow the DailyFX Podcasts on A Platform That Suits You

iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/trading-global-markets-decoded/id1440995971

Stitcher: https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/trading-global-markets-decoded-with-dailyfx

Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/user-943631370

Google Play: https://play.google.com/music/listen?u=0#/ps/Iuoq7v7xqjefyqthmypwp3x5aoi

---Written by Tyler Yell, CMT

Tyler Yell is a Chartered Market Technician. Tyler provides Technical analysis that is powered by fundamental factors on key markets as well as trading educational resources. Read more of Tyler’s Technical reports via his bio page.

Communicate with Tyler and have your shout below by posting in the comments area. Feel free to include your market views as well.

Talk markets on twitter @ForexYell

Looking for a fundamental perspective on Gold? Check out the Weekly Gold Fundamental Forecast

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES