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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook: XAU in Search of Support into 2019 Low

Gold Weekly Technical Outlook: XAU in Search of Support into 2019 Low

2019-04-06 22:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Gold prices are fractionally lower this week with the precious metal trading at 1291 ahead of the New York close on Friday. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

Looking for a fundamental perspective on Gold? Check out the Weekly Gold Fundamental Forecast.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Weekly Price Chart (XAU/USD)

XAU

Notes: In my last Gold Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that price was, “on pace to mark an outside weekly-reversal off the March highand leaves the risk lower heading into the April open.” Price registered a low at 1280 this week before recovering with bullion virtually unchanged into the close of the week.

Weekly support remains at 1275/76, “where the objective yearly opening-range low converges on the 38.2% retracement of the 2018 advance and former pitchfork resistance.” Key support and broader bullish invalidation rests at 1253/58 – both regions of interest for possible exhaustion / long-entries IF reached. Resistance stands at the yearly high-week close at 1327 with a breach / close above 1350 needed to keep the long-bias in play targeting 1366 and 1380/91.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: While our broader outlook is still weighted to the topside, the risk remains for a move lower towards the yearly lows before resumption. From a trading standpoint, we’re looking for a low in price on a test of confluence support near the yearly range lows with a breach above 1327 needed to validate the reversal. Review my latest Gold Price Technical Outlook for a closer look at the near-term trading levels.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then- Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Gold Trader Sentiment

XAU Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold - the ratio stands at +3.46 (76.4% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are4.2% lower than yesterday and 3.4% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 9.7% lower than yesterday and 3.0% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

Other Weekly Technical Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast - AUD/USD Outlook Mixed, AUD/NZD and GBP/AUD Flirt with New Trends

Oil Forecast - Crude Oil Prices Hit Fresh 5-Month High with Eyes Glued on Dow and Risk

British Pound Forecast - GBPUSD & EURGBP Trends Creaking

US Dollar Forecast - Can USD Bulls Post a Breakout?

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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