Activity measures across the market have dropped to extraordinary lows this past week. The VIX slid to its lowest level since October 3rd, the EURUSD range signaled quiet not seen since Summer 2014 and USDJPY’s week was the smallest on recent record. Markets have been quiet, but 2018 has taught us not to grow complacent.
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Supporting factors for crude oil strength continue to play out as the global energy commodity pushed above the 100-DMA on the 2019 highs and trade war optimism continues.
A week of two-halves with Sterling pushing higher in the first-half, before selling off reasonably sharply as the week draws to a close. Support levels may soon be tested.
There is a high probability of volatility for the global financial markets and across FX this week, but will the jump in activity translate into a meaningful break for the US Dollar?
Gold’s attempt to clear resistance fell short and created multiple bearish reversal warning signs. The risks seem tilted to the downside and the 6-month dominant uptrend is vulnerable.
After bouncing, trend, levels, and price action suggest the Euro will weaken again in the sessions to come.
Technical levels will dictate the depth of price action this week as the New Zealand Central Bank will offer commentary on its Official Cash Rate.