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EURUSD Weekly Technical Forecast: Euro to Weaken in Days Ahead

EURUSD Weekly Technical Forecast: Euro to Weaken in Days Ahead

Paul Robinson,
What's on this page

EURUSD Technical Highlights:

  • Euro momentum stalling around resistance, suggests next move is down
  • General trend favors more weakness from here or just a bit higher

Check out the Euro Q1 Forecast to see our analysts’ intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.

Euro momentum stalling around resistance, suggests next move is down

The Euro’s bounce from near the November low looks to have run its course with momentum having stalled since Wednesday. Upward momentum fizzled out upon an attempt to cross over the lower parallel in place since November, with the 4-hr chart showing the makings of a corrective wedge.

The downward trend, resistance, and price action combine to suggest EURUSD is headed lower in the days ahead. If this is the case, first up will be the recent low at 11234, followed by the November low at 11216. At the rate things have been going lately, it could be a stretch that we see an extended slide too far beyond either of those levels without another bounce.

The more likely scenario appears to be for weakness from current levels, but alternatively if buying pressure comes in and pushes the Euro past last week’s high, it will still have a difficult time sustaining loftier levels as both trend structure and a trend-line from last month work against the Euro.

Volatility will return but until it does we need to continue to respect the current environment and take it for what it is. Given the historical extremes in low volatility, a resurgence in price swings won’t be a one-week event, but rather a material regime change that will last for a significant stretch of time. The bottom line is that if volatility suddenly sneaks up on us there will be plenty of time to change gears and take advantage of it without trying to spend too much time trying to anticipate its arrival.

Traders are long EURUSD, see the IG Client Sentiment page to find out how changes in positioning can act as a signal for price direction.

EURUSD Daily Chart (Resistance, momentum faltering)

EURUSD Daily Chart

EURUSD 4-hr Chart (corrective wedge forming)

EURUSD 4Hour Chart

Helpful Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.