News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/ZDuee58Abe
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/niJL2W2yXV
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/0rNbbrd58e
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/zPzJAxBJxt
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/uf6KEYTes5
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/reRmDe1Ksp https://t.co/gRjdVfbg66
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/SQUCCYRCIk https://t.co/mLLGqYUygY
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/HUYJzEkYiT
  • #Gold prices put in a major breakout last month and, so far, buyers have held the line. But a really big Fed meeting is on the calendar for this week. Can Gold bulls hold? Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/NGRTSfceOW https://t.co/QkSUORIQE2
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/PHK2sqB1jV
Crude Oil Forecast: Bears May Want to Turn Away, Momentum is Here

Crude Oil Forecast: Bears May Want to Turn Away, Momentum is Here

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Crude Oil Price Forecast Talking Points:

  • The ONE Thing: The bullish dominos keep falling for crude oil in 2019 with demand stable despite other economic indicators tipping into the red with sanctions and production cuts the world over
  • Are you into crude? This podcast with Tracy Shuchart is a can’t miss Master’s class on oil trading
  • Two weekly advances don’t traditionally make a trend, but the favorable momentum at the back of crude on the break above $55.61/bbl turns attention toward the $59.50-$64.67/bbl zone that will be explained below. Additionally, crude is holding above the 100-DMA

You are in luck, DailyFX’s Q1 2019 Crude Oil Forecast was just released

Technical Forecast for USOIL: Bullish

Please add a description for the image.

Chart Source: ProRealTime charting, IG UK Price Feed. Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

Crude is trading higher again (a common theme at the start of 2019), and WTI & Brent currently sit higher for the year by 26.6% and 25% respectively. While there has been concerns about the macro growth view, the US Dollar have failed to be a headwind above 97 on crude.

Traders would likely do best to view the current move higher in relation to the capitulation in December, which turned to a near 3 standard deviation move of the 12-month average, with the 12-month average at $63.45/bbl as some of December’s weak data points that caused concern has reverted higher, and Saudi Arabia production cuts add to further support under the price.

Looking for a fundamental perspective on oil? Check out the Weekly Oil Fundamental Forecast.

A Professional Crude Trader’s View on Crude

As Tracy Shuchart noted on the DailyFX Podcast, a lot of the commodity sector is receiving favorable fund flow after a disastrous Q4 in addition to short covering per the ICE Brent positioning report with Open Interest picking up after shrinking so much before the massive end of year drop, which makes for an attractive opportunity in a market poised to do well if global growth also picks up. One reason why growth might pick up is that a resolution of a US-China trade deal as the March 1 date approaches.

Adding Up The Momentum Factors for Crude Oil

February opened the month with a drop from ~$56/bbl to $51.50/bbl or roughly 1/3 of the December 24 to February 4 high. However, after holding $51/bbl, crude has taken off for again 12% gain that may be cementing bullish momentum.

As you’ll see on the chart, three things have my attention:

  1. The lagging line on Ichimoku is breaking above the cloud, a clear bullish momentum indicator
  2. The Fibonacci extension shows a target of ~$59-$64/bbl, which looks favorable after the shallow correction mentioned above was followed by such strong gains
  3. The price moved above the 100-DMA (not shown on the chart above) but could signal bullish momentum that may carry the price forward to the 200-DMA near the 12-month average at $63.45.

What’s the Risk to my Bullish Thesis?

Tracy said it best in our conversation on the DailyFX podcast this week, “crude traders love volatility, oil producing countries do not.” Traders should continue to watch supply continue to watch the bullish story, or at least, limited downside.

The thesis that price could continue to $59-$64 would need further bullish momentum as evidenced by the lagging line on Ichimoku remaining above the daily cloud, and price holding above the 26-median line (currently at $54.45/bbl.). That puts the view at risk. A break below the February low of $51.53/bbl moves me from bullish to neutral.

Follow the DailyFX Podcasts on A Platform That Suits You

iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/trading-global-markets-decoded/id1440995971

Stitcher: https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/trading-global-markets-decoded-with-dailyfx

Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/user-943631370

Google Play: https://play.google.com/music/listen?u=0#/ps/Iuoq7v7xqjefyqthmypwp3x5aoi

---Written by Tyler Yell, CMT

Tyler Yell is a Chartered Market Technician. Tyler provides Technical analysis that is powered by fundamental factors on key markets as well as trading educational resources. Read more of Tyler’s Technical reports via his bio page.

Communicate with Tyler and have your shout below by posting in the comments area. Feel free to include your market views as well.

Talk markets on twitter @ForexYell

Other Weekly Technical Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast – AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD Eye Trend-Forecasting Patterns

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES