Sterling FX-Pairs Technical Analysis
- GBPUSD technical point to lower prices.
- EURGBP may re-trace this week’s move as the single-currency shifts lower.
We have recently released our Q1 Trading Forecasts for a wide range of Currencies and Commodities, including GBPUSD and EURGBP with our fundamental and medium-term term technical outlook.
GBPUSD broke through the 200-day moving average at the start of the week before breaking below the 50-day ma at the end of the week, leaving the pair looking negative in the near-term. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2894 also fell, adding weight to further downside. The RSI indicator is now at its lowest level since mid-December, and is attempting to flatten out, although it still has room to fall before it hits oversold territory. Initial downside target is the weekly low at 1.2773 before the August 15 swing-low at 1.2620, a level also touched by the spike sell-off low on January 2. To the upside, 1.2893 ahead of the 200-day moving average at 1.2945.
GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (April 2018 - February 15, 2019)
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EURGBP broke through the 61.8% retracement level at 0.8803, opening the way to further gains to the 50% retracement level at 0.8860 and the longer-dated moving average at 0.8882. While the upside remains in-play, a re-test of this week’s lows, and the 20-day moving average around 0.8745 cannot be discounted. If we trade and close below these levels, there is a cluster of old lows between 0.8697 and 0.8723 going all the way back to May 2018 that will provide strong support in the short-term. On a longer-term basis, EURGBP will likely remain between 0.8621 and 0.8882 until Brexit negotiations are clearer.
Looking for a fundamental perspective on Sterling? Check out the Weekly Sterling Fundamental Forecast.
EURGBP Daily Price Chart (April 2018 - February 15, 2019)
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--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst
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