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Gold Price Weekly Technical Outlook: XAU Breakout Stalls at Resistance

Gold is carving a monthly opening-range just below Fib resistance and keeps the price breakout vulnerable. Here are the levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart.

Gold prices are set to snap a two-week winning streak with the precious metal down 0.26% to trade at 1314 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the Gold (XAU/USD) weekly chart.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Looking for a fundamental perspective on Gold ? Check out the Weekly Gold Fundamental Forecast.

Gold Weekly Price Chart (XAU/USD)

XAU.

Notes:In my previous Gold Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that the price breakout had,achieved our initial resistance target and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable near-term,” while below Fibonacci resistance at 1322. Price has now set the February opening-range just below this threshold with weekly momentum testing resistance at the 70-threshold. The broader price breakout remains at risk while below this zone.

Initial support remains back at the 2018 open at 1302 with near-term bullish invalidation steady at the highlighted slope confluence around ~1290. ‘A breach higher from here targets the 2018 high-week close at 1350 backed closely by the 2016 trendline just higher around ~1360s.’

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line:The immediate focus is on a break of the 1302-1322 zone early in the month with the broader outlook weighted to the topside while above 1290. From a trading standpoint, we’ll favor fading weakness while above confluence support targeting a breach higher in price. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term trading levels.

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Gold Trader Sentiment

Gold
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold - the ratio stands at +2.51 (71.5% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 3.5% higher than yesterday and 3.0% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 0.7% higher than yesterday and 9.0% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

Other Weekly Technical Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Strength Falls Apart, Can AUD/CAD Breakout Last?

Oil Forecast – Bullish Backdrop Remains Despite Weekly Drop

British Pound Forecast – GBP Down But Not Out

US Dollar Forecast – Dollar Matches Longest Climb Since November 2016, Is it a Trend?