Never miss a story from Paul Robinson

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Paul Robinson

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

EUR/USD Technical Highlights:

  • Euro bounce has plenty of resistance to contend with
  • 3-month percentage range smallest since 2014

Check out the Euro Q1 Forecast to see our analysts’ intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.

Euro bounce has plenty of resistance to contend with

The Euro continues to be a difficult handle with volatility extremely low. The 3-month percentage range is the smallest it’s been since the doldrums of 2014. We may not be in for a massive move like the one that began then, but we are certainly nearing a point where EUR/USD should make a sizable swing.

In the mean-time, laying low isn’t a bad idea to avoid suffering a ‘death by a thousand cuts.’ However, low-vol range environments might favor your trading style, in which case more of the same may favor your strategy. But be on the watch-out, though, for an expansion in range.

The broader trend remains firmly down since the top last year, but that doesn’t mean the Euro can’t reverse higher with force at some point. It seems like the unlikely path and some work will need to be done to tilt the chart higher, but we can’t dismiss the notion of a big rally.

Looking lower, with some more time and shape-shifting the channel since November could morph into another bear-flag. But even then, we’ll need to see serious market participation push the Euro down before getting excited about jumping board a trend continuation.

In the week ahead, it may be more of the same, with the trend-lines from March and September both running over top Thursday’s high at right around the same levels. On a break of this confluence lies another even strong confluence; the 200-day, January high at 11570, and upper parallel all align in a tight window. This would be a good spot to see sellers emerge again.

On a drop lower, the lower parallel and the 11289 level will be viewed as support and may keep a floor in the Euro. If the aforementioned levels give-way on either side, then we may have something bigger on our hands brewing…

Traders are generally flat EUR/USD, see the IG Client Sentiment page to find out how changes in positioning can act as a signal for price direction.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (levels to watch high and low)


Helpful Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX

Other Weekly Technical Forecast:

AUD Forecast – AUD/USD and AUD/JPY May Extend Climbs as AUD/CAD Holds its Ground

NZD Forecast – NZDUSD Rally May Stall at Resistance, NZDCAD to Test Support

Oil Forecast – Sharp Rebound Meets Inflection Point

British Pound Forecast – Charts Levels Remain Intact

US Dollar Forecast – Dollar Avoids Critical Breakdown, But for How Long?

Gold Forecast – Rally Eyes Resistance at 8-Month Highs