EUR/USD Technical Highlights:
- Euro bounce has plenty of resistance to contend with
- 3-month percentage range smallest since 2014
Check out the Euro Q1 Forecast to see our analysts’ intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.
Euro bounce has plenty of resistance to contend with
The Euro continues to be a difficult handle with volatility extremely low. The 3-month percentage range is the smallest it’s been since the doldrums of 2014. We may not be in for a massive move like the one that began then, but we are certainly nearing a point where EUR/USD should make a sizable swing.
In the mean-time, laying low isn’t a bad idea to avoid suffering a ‘death by a thousand cuts.’ However, low-vol range environments might favor your trading style, in which case more of the same may favor your strategy. But be on the watch-out, though, for an expansion in range.
The broader trend remains firmly down since the top last year, but that doesn’t mean the Euro can’t reverse higher with force at some point. It seems like the unlikely path and some work will need to be done to tilt the chart higher, but we can’t dismiss the notion of a big rally.
Looking lower, with some more time and shape-shifting the channel since November could morph into another bear-flag. But even then, we’ll need to see serious market participation push the Euro down before getting excited about jumping board a trend continuation.
In the week ahead, it may be more of the same, with the trend-lines from March and September both running over top Thursday’s high at right around the same levels. On a break of this confluence lies another even strong confluence; the 200-day, January high at 11570, and upper parallel all align in a tight window. This would be a good spot to see sellers emerge again.
On a drop lower, the lower parallel and the 11289 level will be viewed as support and may keep a floor in the Euro. If the aforementioned levels give-way on either side, then we may have something bigger on our hands brewing…
Traders are generally flat EUR/USD, see the IG Client Sentiment page to find out how changes in positioning can act as a signal for price direction.
EUR/USD Daily Chart (levels to watch high and low)
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX