News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • the S&P 500 has tested this resistance zone every day this week 4472-4479 $ES $SPY $SPX buyers haven't given up, have continued to offer support with higher lows over the past few days current support at 50% fibo of aug-sept mm https://t.co/CAekc1kALi https://t.co/WcxPZswoaq
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/MtwDvGUpTJ
  • $USD breakout pulling back a bit but so far, that pullback has held support in the prior resistance zone $DXY https://t.co/6jSbjqioiI https://t.co/N1wxzktF0H
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/LBMggNJrmZ
  • ECB's Makhlouf says fears of excessive inflation are exaggerated $EUR
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/7U3ZJR0kDB
  • Angola to cut November oil exports to lowest since at least 2008 - Angola exported 1.1mbpd of crude oil in September, according to Refinitiv
  • ECB's Kazaks - The 2% price target will not be met in the medium term - Inflation outlook likely to be revised higher
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/fs5IRP7MJy
  • ECB's De Cos says conclusion of FT report is incompatible with ECB guidance $EUR
AUD/USD Bullish Breakout Attempt Fell Short, AUD/JPY Risks Falling

AUD/USD Bullish Breakout Attempt Fell Short, AUD/JPY Risks Falling

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Talking Points – AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, Bearish Engulfing

  • AUD/USD struggled to find direction as EUR/AUD accelerated its descent as anticipated
  • Both AUD/USD and AUD/JPY attempted to overturn their dominant downtrends yet again
  • Their breakouts did not seem terribly convincing, especially AUD/JPY which may fall next

Have a question about what’s in store for Australian Dollar next week? Join aTrading Q&A Webinarto ask it live!

AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Neutral

When we last looked at AUD/USD, the pair struggled to push above a descending trend line from February. This is a resistance line that has been keeping the dominant downtrend in the Aussie Dollar intact. It was looking as though we could get a reversal of the prolonged descent in the pair, but the last few trading days of this past week proved otherwise. Meanwhile, EUR/AUD accelerated its drop as anticipated.

Looking at the AUD/USD daily chart below, the climb above the February trend line appears to have been a false breakout for now. Prices were unable to follow through as upside momentum ran out. This does leave the Australian Dollar sitting squarely on support which is the February line and also the 14.6% Fibonacci extension level at 0.72283.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Bullish Breakout Attempt Fell Short, AUD/JPY Risks Falling

The lack of confirmation in Aussie’s breakout attempt prevents a bullish technical forecast, but it also won’t be bearish. Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, I have my eyes on a potential near-term rising trend line from late October. At the moment, it only contains two points where prices have tested the line. A third test would confirm the trend line if it holds.

A descent through it would be bearish through. This would expose the December/May 2016 lows around 0.71452. Meanwhile, immediate resistance appears to be 0.73106 which is just shy of the highs reached this past week. An ascent above it would confirm a reversal of the dominant downtrend. But for now, the AUD/USD technical forecast will have to be neutral.

AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart

AUD/USD Bullish Breakout Attempt Fell Short, AUD/JPY Risks Falling

AUD/JPY Technical Outlook: Slightly Bearish

Arguably, AUD/JPY made more interesting progress this past week than AUD/USD. AUD/JPY prices not only closed above the descending February trend line (which is also present here) but achieved confirmation as well. But during the last trading day of this past week, a bearish engulfing candlestick formed on the daily chart. This does show indecision and another close lower would confirm it, signaling a reversal to come.

AUD/JPY Daily Chart

AUD/USD Bullish Breakout Attempt Fell Short, AUD/JPY Risks Falling

Such an outcome would place the February trend line as potential former resistance now support next. Furthermore, zooming in on the AUD/JPY 4-hour chart shows that a near-term rising support line from late October was broken. This adds another point to the argument that AUD/JPY may see its next leg as a decline. But the push above the February trend line should not be overlooked if this isn’t a false breakout.

Taking this into consideration, the AUD/JPY technical forecast will be left at slightly bearish. Another close under the bearish engulfing would increase the odds of a more pronounced descent to come. But the February trend line may hold, keeping prices from falling further. A fall under it though opens the door to testing the next area of support at 80.50 which is the March lows. Resumption of the near-term uptrend has 83.44 – 83.93 eyed as resistance.

AUD/JPY 4-Hour Chart

AUD/USD Bullish Breakout Attempt Fell Short, AUD/JPY Risks Falling

** Charts created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

Other Weekly Technical Forecast:

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES