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EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook - Euro Nearing a Breakout

EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook - Euro Nearing a Breakout

Paul Robinson, Strategist

EUR/USD Technical Highlights:

  • Euro working towards a developed wedge
  • 11500 remains an important floor
  • A price move looks to be nearing

Check out our intermediate-term fundamental and technical perspective on EUR/USD in the DailyFX Q3 Euro Forecast.

The euro continues to further itself along to seemingly nowhere as it fails to find enough sponsorship to hold a rally, but at the same time it is also failing to garner enough sellers to push it through major long-term support (top of 2015/16 range).

A pattern is becoming clearer by the day with a wedge beginning to come to light. It has symmetrical qualities at this time, however; it could still take on the form of a descending wedge if the late week rally fails and the 11500-threshold is thoroughly tested again. In either case, symmetrical or descending, the outcome could be all the same.

Taking a simpler view, as long as support holds in the 11500s it will remain an important floor, keeping the euro buoyed if not giving it a chance to rally. A little more price contraction and a topside breakout may lead to a squeeze as the market has grown somewhat complacent with a generally stronger dollar bias. On the flip side, the trend from the spring could quickly reassert itself with a break below 11500. The key is waiting for a breakout of a developed pattern.

With price coiling up, we are nearing a resolution, and likely quite soon (next couple of weeks). Situations of growing confusion though contracting price should have the opposite effect on market participants; that is, instead of lulling them to sleep traders should prep themselves for price expansion.

Gotten a little off track? It’s happens. Check out these 4 ideas to help rebuild your confidence.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (Wedge forming on big support)

EUR/USD daily chart with wedge potential on big support

EUR/USD Sentiment

As per IGCS, traders are nearly flat EUR/USD, but should we soon see a breakout look for that to skew in one direction or the other (increased longs = bearish, increased shorts = bullish), possibly building a case for continued momentum. For more details regarding sentiment and how it can act as a contrarian indicator, check out the IG Client Sentiment page.

EUR/USD IG Client Sentiment

EUR/USD IGCS chart

Helpful Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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