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EUR/USD Technical Highlights:

  • EUR/USD held confluence of support on Friday
  • As long as 12215 holds, expecting strength
  • Major resistance arrives at 2008 trend-line, ~12450

For a longer-term fundamental and technical outlook on EUR/USD, check out the recently released DailyFX Quarterly Forecast.

The range in the euro since January has had good levels to operate off of at times, but you’ve had to be nimble and let go of trades as opposing levels quickly arrived. Looking for more of the same in the week ahead. Big support via the April trend-line, May 2016 slope, and a late-March swing-low held on Friday following the U.S. jobs report.

The slight dip below support and recovery back above was enough of a bullish rejection to tilt momentum to the topside. As long as the week low at 12215 holds, an upward bias will remain intact. Looking higher, major resistance arrives again at the 2008 trend-line in the vicinity of 12450. The distance from current levels to there is significant enough to offer traders another decent trade within the ongoing range.

Until we see a breakout above the 2008 trend-line or below the 2017 high at 12092, we’ll continue to respect the choppy trading environment. There will be opportunities until then, just as there looks to be one now, but the key will be letting go of positions into important levels until we see a solid breakout from the range. Have patience, it’ll break at some point.

Going through a slump right now? (It happens to the best.) Check out these 4 concepts for Building Confidence in Trading.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (Held confluence of support)

EUR/USD daily chart, turning higher from support

Traders have maintained a generally short bias in the euro, albeit only marginal at times as is the case at the moment. Watch for a strong shift in positioning via IGCS Client Sentiment for further indications as to which way the range may eventually break.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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