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EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Euro Finds Strong Opposition, Again

EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Euro Finds Strong Opposition, Again

2018-02-17 11:52:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
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EUR/USD Highlights:

  • EUR/USD rejected again from 2008 trend-line
  • Weakness expected in the near-term following Friday’s price action
  • A visit of shorter-term trend-line support may be in store this week

To view the longer-term technical and fundamental outlook for the Euro, or to see our top trade ideas for 2018, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

The week before last there was reason coming off the 2008 trend-line to be bearish, last week reason to be bullish on the dip, now we find ourselves back in favor of lower prices in the near-term. The trend-line extending down from 2008 has become problematic for a third time in three weeks.

After inching above the trend-line and recent highs Friday’s forceful rejection has momentum shifted back lower, and as long as the euro stays below on a closing basis the outlook is at best neutral. Turning to near-term support, the trend-line rising up since December (lower parallel of November channel) is a reasonable first target in the days ahead.

If selling were to push the single-currency below this first threshold, the next line of support comes in by way of a slope from May 2016 which recently put a floor in heading into last week. Due to the angle of this slope it is in near confluence with the 2/9 low as well, making the area around 12200 an important one.

To negate a downward bias, we will need to see a strong daily close above the 2008 trend-line and Friday’s high at 12553. This would make for a strong case that the euro will continue higher. But until it is able to do such, resistance will be treated as just that, and the outlook has once again flipped.

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EUR/USD daily price chart

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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