News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here: https://t.co/MZtBh88nOv https://t.co/hQgZB9T73q
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10CKUR https://t.co/9JVh6BsWa2
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/ZDuee58Abe
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/niJL2W2yXV
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/0rNbbrd58e
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/zPzJAxBJxt
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/uf6KEYTes5
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/reRmDe1Ksp https://t.co/gRjdVfbg66
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/SQUCCYRCIk https://t.co/mLLGqYUygY
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/HUYJzEkYiT
EURUSD - Does It 'Need' to Fill the Gap? Maybe Not

EURUSD - Does It 'Need' to Fill the Gap? Maybe Not

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • Market participants continue to look for the April 24 gap to fill
  • Very substantial support in the low-10800s stands in the way of a gap-fill
  • Looking higher there is plenty of work to be done, this week may be a consolidation week between levels

See what’s driving EURUSD this quarter, check out our Q2 forecast.

Ever since the first round of the French elections, market participants have been calling for a filling of the nearly 200-point gap. And while it is true, gaps have a tendency of filling, they don’t necessarily do it right away. Gaps can fill in a day, a week, a month; and in some instances, it can take much longer. Three weeks have already passed and the euro continues to defy the notion it must fill the gap. This is not to say it won’t do it sooner rather than later, but as long as support in the low 10800s continues to hold, no gap-fill can be expected. That might be stating the obvious, but bids continuing to come in near the same level is creating a clear line-in-the-sand for traders to work with.

There is something to this area in the low 10800s – it’s been in play on numerous occasions as both key support and resistance for nearly two years. And now, not only is there solid price support, but the 200-day MA (10831) is providing further underpinnings.

From a tactical standpoint: Traders can continue to lean on support, and should it give-way then we can look for a fill of the gap. Should 10821 break it will likely happen quite quickly. But waiting for the euro to sink into the gap first is a prudent approach for playing these scenarios, not predicting that it will do-so from levels which are well above a strong area of support.

Looking higher, EURUSD still has its work cut out for it. The ‘gap-and-trap’ last Monday following the Macron victory came at a trend-line which has two (now three) important connecting points – the 2016 high and the day Trump surprisingly won the U.S. presidential election. With the third inflection point coming on yet another important event, the line’s importance has grown even more-so. It might take some time for the euro to break through, if it does at all, but if enough sponsorship can be found to push it through the trend-line, 5-month old upper parallel, and ‘Macron-high’ – there is plenty of upside potential.

This week some more defending of the gap might be in order, and on a break higher we might see EURUSD fail to push through tough resistance, but looking at the intermediate-term picture a period of consolidation might be just what it needs to eventually put together a run. Or, the market will get its wish and support will break, resulting in a gap-fill.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD - Does It 'Need' to Fill the Gap? Maybe Not

Created with TradingView

Live events are held daily by DailyFX analysts, for a full line-up see the Webinar Calendar.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES