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Technical Weekly: Is USD/CHF the Tell?

Technical Weekly: Is USD/CHF the Tell?

2017-01-27 22:06:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:
  • EUR/USD smallest non-holiday range since September 2014
  • Tough spot for commodity currencies
  • USD/CHF old highs = new lows

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EUR/USD

Weekly

Technical Weekly: Is USD/CHF the Tell?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

SeeREAL TIME trader positioning

This was the smallest weekly range for EUR/USD since Christmas week 2014. It’s the smallest non-holiday weekly range since September 2012. 1.0820 wasn’t reached although that’s still a level that I would pay attention to for near term resistance…then around 1.0900. If EUR/USD low is in place and everything since Thanksgiving is a bottoming pattern then 1.0462-1.0539 (2015 lows) should provide support. Remember the weely RSI comment – “the fact that the indicator has turned up from above 30 is a positive but pay attention to the 60 value for resistance.”

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GBP/USD

Weekly

Technical Weekly: Is USD/CHF the Tell?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

SeeREAL TIME trader positioning

Cable has followed through on the weekly reversal and closed above the 13 week average. Yes, the high this week is at the November high and a long term parallel so it could take some time to work out the kinks before an extension higher. Recent comments remain valid. “Did the96 month (8 year) cycle low countjust nail a major GBP/USD low (cycle is in February but give this some wiggle room)? This week’s bullish outside week is a good start. The former floor in the 1.3500-1.3700 zone could come into play at some point although the first test would be 1.2800.”

AUD/USD

Weekly

Technical Weekly: Is USD/CHF the Tell?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

SeeREAL TIME trader positioning

Aussie was dead this week which isn’t much of a surprise given the hairy area that the cross has entered. The first half of 2015 floor is up here and the big wicks from 2016 start near .7650. In other words, we’ve entered a resistance area. Previously, “AUD/USD sports good looking symmetry with respect to the time between major lows. It’s one reason that I like the idea of the 2016 low at .6847 holding. The other reason to get bullish in the event of constructive price action on the daily or weekly charts is the relationship between the 2011 high and 2016 low. The .618 absolute retracement of the 2011 high at 1.1080 is .6847 (1.1080 x .618). The 2016 low is .6827.”

NZD/USD

Weekly

Technical Weekly: Is USD/CHF the Tell?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

SeeREAL TIME trader positioning

“At this point, the head and shoulders pattern is considered failed but pay attention to the underside of the 2016 trendline for resistance. The line is just above the December high of .7239.” Kiwi is finishing the week better than the level noted last week. Price channels since the August 2015 (China) in a bullish manner although there is a good deal of horizontal consideration for supply between .7316 and .7403. In other words, the situation is similar to Aussie in that the big move is probably up but we’re at levels that won’t be easy to penetrate.

USD/JPY

Weekly

Technical Weekly: Is USD/CHF the Tell?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

SeeREAL TIME trader positioning

The last USD/JPY note remarked that “USD/JPY has indeed turned lower but could stabilize now that the 13 week average has held. Even so, the strength of the prior trend probably necessitates a more drawn out corrective process. In the event of a break, 109 would be in play.” I’m sticking with the ‘drawn out process’, meaning that USD/JPY is neither overly bullish nor bearish but rather range. The trendline / horizontal level above price and 13 week average / December low below price make for solid range barriers.

USD/CAD

Weekly

Technical Weekly: Is USD/CHF the Tell?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

SeeREAL TIME trader positioning

No change as USD/CAD continues to hold up the ‘new’ channel. “Connect the May and November highs and extend a parallel off of the May low to work with the new channel. The overlapping (corrective) nature of the advance from May keeps me from turning bullish on the outside week. Best to wait for clarity regarding Loonie.”

USD/CHF

Weekly (LOG)

Technical Weekly: Is USD/CHF the Tell?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

SeeREAL TIME trader positioning

“Since trading to a 6+ year high, USD/CHF has slowly declined. Broad upside potential is possible as long as price is above the 2011-2014 trendline. The trendline is near .9850 on log scale and just above .9700 on arithmetic. The topside of the wedge is worth knowing near 1.0450 (line off of 2012 and 2015 highs). Essentially, the wedge barriers are all I care about…all else is noise.” I care about where this week’s low was because it’s at former resistance from the 2012 high and June 2016 high. Former resistance providing support is bullish...so I’m bullish.

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