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Monthly
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FXTW wrote last week that “the rejection of the rally post-ECB at the year open, which also filled the mid-November gap, is not bullish. Even so, EUR/USD has yet to break range lows despite DXY trading at nearly 14 year highs. The non-confirmation is a warning. Bottom line, this market is in a dangerous position for either side.” DXY is at new highs and EUR/USD is at new lows. The 1985-2000 trendline, which was such a friend for so long, has been broken. Perhaps I’ve been following the wrong slope all along and the correct one is the line that connects the 1995 and 2008 peaks. If so, then the parallel from the 2000 low is just under 1.0100. After that? Pay attention to the channel that originates from the line off of the 2008 and 2011 highs. The median line was resistance for all of 2016. Sentiment towards the USD in general right now is one of euphoria, specifically against EUR and JPY, so I don’t see how it’s smooth sailing to the downside.
As always, define your risk points (read more about traits of successful traders here).
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GBP/USD
Monthly (LOG)
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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“The 96 month (8 year) cycle low count is still in the back of my mind as well.” Now it’s at the front of my mind. The former floor in the 1.3500-1.3700 zone should be watched for resistance now. The current level is best termed ‘no-man’s land’ in the grand scheme of things. The line that extends off of the 1992 and 1998 highs (hits the 2009 low) might be the spot for major support. Depending on when (or if) it gets there; it crosses from 1.1200 to 1.0950 throughout 2017.
Monthly
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AUD/USD sports good looking symmetry with respect to the time between major lows. It’s one reason that I like the idea of the January low at .6847 holding. The other reason to get bullish in the event of constructive price action on the daily or weekly charts is the relationship between the 2011 high and 2016 low. The .618 absolute retracement of the 2011 high at 1.1080 is .6847 (1.1080 x .618). The 2016 low is .6827.
NZD/USD
Monthly
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NZD/USD is vulnerable to say the least. The 1985-1993 trendline was resistance in Kiwi from July to November. In fact, price action since July just completed a head and shoulders top. Throw in the fact that 2 of the last 6 weeks are of the outside bearish variety the Bird looks like it’s in for a world of hurt. Also, the entire rally from August 2015 qualifies as a re-test of the long term bear move that began with the double top confirmation in early 2015. The re-test, head and shoulders, and rally from 2015 as a wedge is so textbook it scares me.
USD/JPY
Monthly
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USD/JPY isn’t far from ending 2016 unchanged! The rate opened the year at 120.20. This is a chart that I put forth in the summer…time to revisit. The decline into the 2016 low is analogous to the rally into the 1990 high. In both instances, a larger move in the opposite direction had taken place. In both cases, the countertrend move (viewing weakness now as countertrend) reversed at the 5 year average (60 months). Near term, USD/JPY may be at or near the end of the first leg of the next bull cycle just as October 1990 was the first leg of the next bear cycle.
Monthly
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The low this week was right at the May-August trendline (wedge line). Despite the bullish outside week, it remains wise to keep the wedge interpretation of USD/CAD strength since May on the table. The Fibonacci retracements from the 2002-2007 decline are active as well; the top was at the 78.6% and price traded above then closed below the 61.8% in November.
Monthly (LOG)
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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USD/CHF long was my ‘trade of the year’ for 2016…it just took almost the entire year to start working. In any case, given probes of a VERY long term parallel beginning in November 2015, this move could end up launching a rally to 1.15 or so (trendline from 1985)…at least. Note too that if this is the beginning of a major CHF devaluation, it will be launched from a running wedge (very bullish). If the move is going to fail, then it may do so near 1.0450 (topside of the wedge).
