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EUR/USD Timing Compares Favorably wih Early 2000s Base

EUR/USD Timing Compares Favorably wih Early 2000s Base

2016-06-17 18:35:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
  • EUR/USD timing compares favorably with early 2000s base
  • GBP/USD bouncing between long term parallels into BREXIT
  • Update on the bond market

--Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive a free report to your inbox several times a week.

--For more analysis and trade setups (including current positions and the ‘watchlist’), visit SB Trade Desk

--Free trading tips

EUR/USD

Weekly

EUR/USD Timing Compares Favorably wih Early 2000s Base

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

High Frequency Trading Tools

-FXTW wrote in early May that “EUR/USD broke through (resistance) on an intraweek basis but finished the week with a long upper wick that warns of a ‘bull trap’. It seems right to be (long term) bullish given the 31 year trendline support but the breakout may have to wait a bit. As always, define your risk points (read more about traits of successful traders here)…Bulls are probably ‘trapped’ until the mid-1.1000s.” The recent low was 1.1097. The next EUR/USD bull leg (within a multiyear run) may be underway. Price action since the March 2015 low closely resembles price action from the 2000 low to 2002 low (which many thought was a bearish triangle…just like now). In fact, the distance in time between the 2015 low and this week is now the same as the distance in time from the 2000 low and final low in the bottoming sequence. So, it's about time for EUR/USD to make its intentions known!

-For forecasts and 2016 opportunities, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

GBP/USD

Weekly

EUR/USD Timing Compares Favorably wih Early 2000s Base

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-In the run-up to the BREXIT vote, Cable has traded in a volatile range between 2 long term parallels. A break of one of these parallel should usher in the next directional move, either to 1.27 or 1.58. Confidence in directional is low until the headline issue is resolved. Remember, there is a 96 month (8 year) cycle low count.

AUD/USD

Weekly

EUR/USD Timing Compares Favorably wih Early 2000s Base

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-Simply, AUD/USD is constructive because former support turned resistance was support again several weeks ago (from a parallel). What’s more, this week’s low registered a few ticks above the opening price for the year (we call this the ‘touch and go’ over at SB Trade Desk). The next decision point may be mid .7700s (the next parallel).

NZD/USD

Monthly

EUR/USD Timing Compares Favorably wih Early 2000s Base

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-Recent weekly updates have noted that “higher highs and higher lows since August 2015 leaves NZD/USD in an uptrend but be aware of a wall near .71. .7100 is home to a long term median line, 2011 low (.7114) and 1996 high (.7148). The higher highs and higher lows since August are contained by converging trendlines so price action since August 2015 could form a wedge.” High for the post-RBNZ move was .7147. The ‘general area’ of resistance probably extends a bit above .7200. Watch this video for additional details.

USD/JPY

Weekly

EUR/USD Timing Compares Favorably wih Early 2000s Base

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-USD/JPY is in freefall but did hold the May 2013 high (103.73) this week. Strength above 105.40 is needed in order to suggest that the upside is viable towards 110.10 resistance from a sliding parallel (off of the May 2013 and January 2014 highs). The next level of interest would not be until the 2000 and 2014 lows at 100.74-101.26.

USD/CAD

Weekly

EUR/USD Timing Compares Favorably wih Early 2000s Base

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-Previous comments noted that “USD/CAD has carved a bullish engulfing candle at major support. The low just made could be significant.” The bullish engulfing is still there of course but the rally has failed at the 55 week average. FXTW pays attention to this because this average was support for the last 3 years. Former support just provided resistance so USD/CAD may be transitioning to a bearish phase (key words…may be).

USD/CHF

Monthly

EUR/USD Timing Compares Favorably wih Early 2000s Base

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-FXTW was following a bullish wedge pattern from the November high. This pattern completed on 5/18. The pattern then failed on 6/6. A failed bullish pattern serves as a bearish warning. In fact, FXTW wrote recently that “a failed wedge would not be a surprise given the struggle at LONG TERM resistance since November.” Weakness below .9440 could usher in a ‘waterfall decline’.

Bonus Charts

U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Continuous Front Month Weekly

EUR/USD Timing Compares Favorably wih Early 2000s BaseEUR/USD Timing Compares Favorably wih Early 2000s Base

On June 4th, I published a blog post about long term US bond. The general idea is that the bond is in a ‘blow-off’ phase that could reach 190 or so before the long term trend reverses. I remain of this mind but the media has ramped up their coverage of the bond rally in recent days (here’s an example) which often coincides with an inflection point. The current market period started following the mirror of the early 1980s closely again in April and that relationship suggests a 4 to 5 week drop is about to begin. Keep an eye on USDJPY too. If this is a top of sorts in the bond (low in yield), then USDJPY finds an interim low. At least, that’s what financial history (the charts) suggests.

U.S. Treasury Bond Futures and USDJPY Monthly

EUR/USD Timing Compares Favorably wih Early 2000s Base

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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