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NZD/USD Pops into Significant Long Term Price Zone

NZD/USD Pops into Significant Long Term Price Zone

2016-06-10 18:17:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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EUR/USD

Weekly

NZD/USD Pops into Significant Long Term Price Zone

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

High Frequency Trading Tools

-FXTW wrote in early May that “EUR/USD broke through (resistance) on an intraweek basis but finished the week with a long upper wick that warns of a ‘bull trap’. It seems right to be (long term) bullish given the 31 year trendline support but the breakout may have to wait a bit. As always, define your risk points (read more about traits of successful traders here)…Bulls are probably ‘trapped’ until the mid-1.1000s.” The recent low was 1.1097. The next EUR/USD bull leg (within a multiyear run) may be underway but be aware of near term resistance at 1.1400 and 1.1500.

-For forecasts and 2016 opportunities, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

GBP/USD

Weekly

NZD/USD Pops into Significant Long Term Price Zone

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-FXTW has maintained that “GBP/USD trade remains constructive for a run at trendline resistance (about 1.4900) given the successful re-test of the internal trendline that crosses through inflection points since September. Remember, there is a 96 month (8 year) cycle low count.” In the run-up to the BREXIT vote, Cable has traded in a volatile range and just traded to a 7 week low. The line off of the February and April lows is about 1.4300 may provide support. Weakness below there would expose 1.4228 (internal trendline). Confidence in direction is nil.

AUD/USD

Weekly

NZD/USD Pops into Significant Long Term Price Zone

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-“Allowing for gyrations between .7100-.7200 (support within the range) and .7500 (resistance within the range), trend lows over the summer may need to register before the major low is in place…AUD/USD has bounced from support so focus is on .7500. FXTW maintains that new lows will be registered given the impulsive weakness since April.” .7500 was resistance this week. Additional strength in order to complete a corrective process from the May low is possible before renewed selling.

NZD/USD

Monthly

NZD/USD Pops into Significant Long Term Price Zone

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-FXTW wrote last week that “higher highs and higher lows since August 2015 leaves NZD/USD in an uptrend but be aware of a wall near .71. .7100 is home to a long term median line, 2011 low (.7114) and 1996 high (.7148). The higher highs and higher lows since August are contained by converging trendlines so price action since August 2015 could form a wedge.” High for the post-RBNZ move was .7147. The ‘general area’ of resistance probably extends a bit above .7200. Watch this video for additional details.

USD/JPY

Weekly

NZD/USD Pops into Significant Long Term Price Zone

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-“There are a host of technical considerations for USD/JPY support between roughly 105 and 106, including the 2002-2007 line, January 2014 high, October 2014 low, and 200 week average. USD/JPY has responded to the top side of the 2002-2007 line and the recent low is 11 ticks above the January 2014 high. USD/JPY could trade up to 115.50-116.50 (breakdown level) while remaining above 105.44.” This is still possible. In fact, notice how USDJPY traded on the 55 week average for a number of weeks in 2002 and 2008 before bouncing in more drawn out corrective processes.

USD/CAD

Weekly

NZD/USD Pops into Significant Long Term Price Zone

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-Previous comments noted that “USD/CAD has carved a bullish engulfing candle at major support. The low just made could be significant.” The bullish engulfing is still there of course but the rally has failed at the 55 week average. FXTW pays attention to this because this average was support for the last 3 years. Former support just provided resistance…that’s how downtrends start.

USD/CHF

Monthly

NZD/USD Pops into Significant Long Term Price Zone

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-FXTW was following a bullish wedge pattern from the November high. This pattern completed on 5/18. The pattern then failed on 6/6. A failed bullish pattern serves as a bearish warning. In fact, FXTW wrote last week that “a failed wedge would not be a surprise given the struggle at LONG TERM resistance since November.” Weakness below .9440 could usher in a ‘waterfall decline’.

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