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EUR/USD Long Term Bull Trend Holding Support

EUR/USD Long Term Bull Trend Holding Support

2016-06-03 18:15:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:
  • EUR/USD uptrend continuation
  • NZD/USD year-long wedge?
  • USD/CHF re-tests wedge breakout but the long term chart is still bearish

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EUR/USD

Weekly

EUR/USD Long Term Bull Trend Holding Support

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-FXTW wrote in early May that “EUR/USD broke through (resistance) on an intraweek basis but finished the week with a long upper wick that warns of a ‘bull trap’. It seems right to be (long term) bullish given the 31 year trendline support but the breakout may have to wait a bit. As always, define your risk points (read more about traits of successful traders here)…Bulls are probably ‘trapped’ until the mid-1.1000s.” This week’s low was 1.1097 (not quite mid-1.1000s which is annoying because I had orders to buy it down there). The next EUR/USD bull leg (within a multiyear run) may be underway but be aware of resistance at 1.1400 and 1.1500.

-For forecasts and 2016 opportunities, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

GBP/USD

Weekly

EUR/USD Long Term Bull Trend Holding Support

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-GBP/USD trade remains constructive for a run at trendline resistance (about 1.4900) given the successful re-test of the internal trendline that crosses through inflection points since September. Remember, there is a 96 month (8 year) cycle low count.

AUD/USD

Weekly

EUR/USD Long Term Bull Trend Holding Support

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-“Allowing for gyrations between .7100-.7200 (support within the range) and .7500 (resistance within the range), trend lows over the summer may need to register before the major low is in place.” AUD/USD has bounced from support so focus is on .7500. FXTW maintains that new lows will be registered given the impulsive weakness since April.

NZD/USD

Monthly

EUR/USD Long Term Bull Trend Holding Support

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-Higher highs and higher lows since August 2015 leaves NZD/USD in an uptrend but be aware of a wall near .71. .7100 is home to a long term median line, 2011 low (.7114) and 1996 high (.7148). The higher highs and higher lows since August are contained by converging trendlines so price action since August 2015 could form a wedge.

USD/JPY

Weekly

EUR/USD Long Term Bull Trend Holding Support

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-“There are a host of technical considerations for USD/JPY support between roughly 105 and 106, including the 2002-2007 line, January 2014 high, October 2014 low, and 200 week average. USD/JPY has responded to the top side of the 2002-2007 line and the recent low is 11 ticks above the January 2014 high. USD/JPY could trade up to 115.50-116.50 (breakdown level) while remaining above 105.44.” This is still possible. In fact, notice how USDJPY traded on the 55 week average for a number of weeks in 2002 and 2008 before bouncing in more drawn out corrective processes.

USD/CAD

Weekly

EUR/USD Long Term Bull Trend Holding Support

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-Previous comments noted that “USD/CAD has carved a bullish engulfing candle at major support. The low just made could be significant.” The bullish engulfing is still there of course but the rally has failed at the 55 week average. FXTW pays attention to this because this average was support for the last 3 years. Former support just provided resistance…that’s how downtrends start.

USD/CHF

Monthly

EUR/USD Long Term Bull Trend Holding Support

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-Medium term, USD/CHF completed a bullish wedge (from the November high) in May and today’s drop re-tested the breakout line from that wedge. In other words, this is support. Longer term, FXTW would not be surprised if the wedge failed given the struggle at LONG TERM resistance since November.

-Some extremely long term technical considerations are worthy of note when looking at USD/CHF. Read about them here.”

FXI (China Large Cap ETF)

Hourly

EUR/USD Long Term Bull Trend Holding Support

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

On May 13th (see article here) FXTW updated readers on Chinese equities, noting that “5 waves down from the 4/19 high indicate potential for a countertrend rally to develop from nearby. Equality between waves 5 and 1 in a sequence is not uncommon and that relationship exists at 30.96 (spot is 31.11 as I type). Any strength is still viewed in a bearish context given both the impulsive weakness from the 4/19 high and 7 wave (corrective) rally from the February low.” FXI bottomed that day at 31.05 and then re-tested the low on 5/19 (low was 31.04). The market is up about 9% since. Be aware of resistance near 34.12 (3/29 high). AUD/USD has rallied with China but it doesn’t look like there is anything in the way for Aussie until .7500.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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