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GBP/USD Successful Re-Test of Former Resistance Line

GBP/USD Successful Re-Test of Former Resistance Line

2016-05-20 18:44:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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EUR/USD

Weekly

GBP/USD Successful Re-Test of Former Resistance Line

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-FXTW wrote 2 weeks ago that “EUR/USD broke through (resistance) on an intraweek basis but finished the week with a long upper wick that warns of a ‘bull trap’. It seems right to be (long term) bullish given the 31 year trendline support but the breakout may have to wait a bit. As always, define your risk points (read more about traits of successful traders here).” EUR/USD followed through on that bearish reversal. Bulls are probably ‘trapped’ until the mid-1.1000s.

-For forecasts and 2016 opportunities, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

GBP/USD

Weekly

GBP/USD Successful Re-Test of Former Resistance Line

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-FXTW has maintained that “GBP/USD trade remains constructive for a run at trendline resistance (about 1.4900) but watch for support at the internal trendline that crosses through inflection points since September. FXTW would like to see support register at that line in order to maintain a constructive view. Remember, there is a 96 month (8 year) cycle low count.” Support registered near (a few ticks above) the mentioned line. The re-test sets the stage for continuation of strength.

AUD/USD

Weekly

GBP/USD Successful Re-Test of Former Resistance Line

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-FXTW maintained throughout April that “risk of a top is heightened given COT considerations. The combination of resistance, COT (overheated), and the longer term cycle analysis (1 week off) indicates renewed downside potential.” AUD/USD has certainly responded. Allowing for gyrations between .7100-.7200 (support within the range) and .7500 (resistance within the range), trend lows over the summer may need to register before the major low is in place.

NZD/USD

Weekly

GBP/USD Successful Re-Test of Former Resistance Line

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-The last update noted that “NZD/USD has ‘faked out’ FXTW for about the last 2 months. In any case, NZD/USD is pressing against an important technical level marked by former support (former downtrend support) and ‘new’ uptrend resistance (channel). If NZD/USD is going lower, it needs to do so now.” Kiwi realized its largest 1 week drop since January 2 weeks ago but has gone nowhere since. Longer term bearish prospects must be respects while below .7054 (April and May highs) but near term action is indecipherable.

USD/JPY

Weekly

GBP/USD Successful Re-Test of Former Resistance Line

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-There are a host of technical considerations for USD/JPY support between roughly 105 and 106, including the 2002-2007 line, January 2014 high, October 2014 low, and 200 week average. USD/JPY has responded to the top side of the 2002-2007 line and the recent low is 11 ticks above the January 2014 high. USD/JPY could trade up to 115.50-116.50 (breakdown level) while remaining above 105.44.

USD/CAD

Weekly

GBP/USD Successful Re-Test of Former Resistance Line

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-There is no change to the weekly USD/CAD analysis. “FXTW views 1.2830 as a pivot. 1.2830 is both the March 2015 high and October 2015 low. Strength through 1.2830 would signal that at least a near term low is in or a near term bottoming pattern is forming…USD/CAD has carved a bullish engulfing candle at major support. The low just made could be significant.”

USD/CHF

Weekly

GBP/USD Successful Re-Test of Former Resistance Line

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-The May low is right at a 5 year trendline. In fact, this trendline crosses the lows from May 2014 and May 2015. As noted over at the daily section recently, “this is about as far as USD/CHF can go if price action from the November high is a wedge. Failure to hold here would risk weakness to the May 2015 low near .9070. Exceeding wedge resistance (currently mid-.9800s) would bolster bullish prospects.” The wedge confirmed this week therefore focus is towards the November 2015 high.

-Some extremely long term technical considerations are worthy of note when looking at USD/CHF. Read about them here.”

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