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NZD/USD Failed Breakout at Long Term Resistance

NZD/USD Failed Breakout at Long Term Resistance

2016-02-26 20:10:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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EUR/USD

Weekly

NZD/USD Failed Breakout at Long Term Resistance

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-The last FXTW noted that “EUR/USD followed through on the breakout and has pulled back to the breakout zone (support). If EUR/USD is headed higher, then it needs to do so from here.” The upside looked ‘good’ until Friday morning’s USD buying spree. The failed breakout could be bearish but EURUSD is still in a range (could end up as a triangle or flat from the 2015 low) and levels to pay attention to are 1.0872 (year open) and 1.0820 (May and July 2015 lows).

-For forecasts and 2016 opportunities, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

GBP/USD

Weekly

NZD/USD Failed Breakout at Long Term Resistance

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-FXTW wrote previously that “RSI divergence on the weekly is intriguing but daily momentum at the low is more typical of a 3rd wave. So, it’s still wise to treat strength in a corrective manner. 2015 lows capped the bounce from the rally. In other words, former support is providing resistance. This dynamic is bearish but a period of sideways trade may be in store for a while to correct recent momentum extremes.” FXTW was wrong to expect a sideways market as GBP/USD plunged this week. The weekly closing low from 2009 could provide support at 1.3793.

AUD/USD

Weekly

NZD/USD Failed Breakout at Long Term Resistance

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-There is no change to recent comments. “Corrective (range bound) trading behavior may very well continue given the weekly tweezer bottom (at the long term median line no less). Divergence with RSI on the weekly serves as a bullish reversal warning too.” FXTW adds that resistance may reside in the mid .7400s.

NZD/USD

Weekly

NZD/USD Failed Breakout at Long Term Resistance

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-NZD/USD strength continues to fail just shy of the long term median line, which is in line with horizontal resistance from last July. Bearish wicks on recent weekly candles don’t bode well for the Bird either. As noted previously, “The red lines on the chart indicate a long term RSI trend sell signal (higher RSI and lower price). The October high remains critical to any bearish interpretation.” Friday’s (2/26) reversal at long term resistance (median line) could spell doom for NZD/USD in the coming weeks or longer.

USD/JPY

Weekly

NZD/USD Failed Breakout at Long Term Resistance

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-Despite BoJ efforts, FXTW maintained recently that “a broader topping formation is still possible.” The main reason for the stand was the fact that “the 2015 high was right at the 1990-1998 line (log scale)”. USD/JPY has completed a head and shoulders pattern and the objective is mid-105.00s. There is a lot at 105, including the top side of the 2002-2007 line, the January 2014 high, and October 2014 low. Trading levels to be aware of include 110.00s (October 2014 high) and 115.50s-116.20s (breakdown level).

USD/CAD

Weekly

NZD/USD Failed Breakout at Long Term Resistance

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-USD/CAD topped at 1.4689 in January (78.6% of 2002-2007 decline) and is nearing the 61.8% measurement / October 2015 high at 1.3462. That level could provide support but the any bullish operations may want to hold off until the 55 week average / internal trendline near 1.30 given the break below a 9 month trendline this week.

USD/CHF

Weekly

NZD/USD Failed Breakout at Long Term Resistance

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-Some extremely long term technical considerations are worthy of note when looking at USD/CHF. Read about them here. Levels for possible support on this decline are .9595 (trendline and January 2012 high) and just below .9400 (trendline and 200 week average).

Bonus Chart

GBP/NZD Daily

NZD/USD Failed Breakout at Long Term Resistance

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

-In May 2015 (May 11th to be specific), GBP/NZD completed a nearly 4 year inverse head and shoulders pattern. The entire rally has been retraced and today’s low is a few pips above the uncovered close from the May 11, 2015 breakout day and near an internal trendline. The decline from August may also compose a wedge (bullish implications). Perhaps GBP/USD reverses higher…the hysteria surrounding BREXIT seems like a good way to make some sort of a low. Perhaps NZD/USD falls apart after Friday’s reversal. Perhaps both happen. Maybe neither happens. I just like this chart. We’ll dig deeper into the idea at SB Trade Desk.

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